Ubuntu turns to crowdfunding

[claydoh]

http://blog.novacut.com/2013/07/what...lly-about.html

[GreyGeek]

mmmm.... Indeed, Steve!
Help me out. I'm having a difficult time. Which one is the Win8 and which one is the Ubuntu?

I read somewhere that Microsoft's holds 2% of the smartphone market share. (They claim 5%). IF Canonical currently held that percentage they'd be exactly where Microsoft is in the smartphone market -- dead in the water.

[kubicle]

I think I might actually want one.

Is that wrong?

No, if you understand you're getting a pig in a poke.

Caveat emptor.

[oshunluvr]

I realise this opinion is based on what Canonical says it will/can do because the device isn't available yet, but at first blush there is no way you can compare the Edge with the crappy Windows phones. Other than the fact you can make a phone call with both, they have little or nothing in common.

Microsoft phone: Legacy, crappy, closed source OS and few apps.

Ubuntu Edge: Well established Android app base, Solid second cutting edge OS (lets not all forget we're using Ubuntu right now, people!) and it's a new concept. I HATE laptops. Total waste IMO, but here's a single device that can do what my phone does AND what a basic laptop does. Brilliant.

Personally (again just a consumer opinion, not an industry insider) I think it's a mis-charactorization to refer to Windows users as a "Loyal fan base." We have all discussed ad nausium the nasty tricks MicroSith plays to foist their crap on the market place, and they've done a damn good job doing it. I don't know anyone who extoles the virtues of any MS product. Most are either unaware there are alternatives like linux or have no choice - i.e. the company they work for made the decision for them. Their attempt at a cell phone OS failed precisely because it was MS. No one wanted to continue the horrible litany of complaints about their PC's over to their phones and in this case - they were all both aware of alternate choices and virtually no one was forcing that choice. In fact, it wouldn't surprize me to find out that most Windows phone users were not computer users at all.

I doubt the Canonical will knock Apple or Samsung out of business, but they might just have a niche market. If they get a toehold, it could take off and become a really excellent third choice for cell phone buyers. Turst me, with a market place as large as the mobile device market, third place will mean billions.

It's still a vapor device at the moment: but if they follow through with the hardware design they claim, it will be the best phone currently available. The real issue will be price point. $675 (current minimum) seems high when you compare it to the Nexus 4, but if you consider the idea that it could replace another computer in your life, it approaches a resonable cost for the function you get. Heck, the sapphire screen would be worth an added $200 alone. My watch has a sapphire crystal and I can assure you - it does not scratch. I have been wearing this watch daily for 12+ years and banged it into stucco, worked on cars, layed tile - you name it - and not a mark. Besides, my current phone - HTC sensation - cost me $499 two years ago. The Edge is a bargin if the claims are true.

One final point: SADBFL aside, I have benefited greatly from the work of Canonical without contributing a dime to them. I have supported other linux projects (distros, games, etc.) through the years but oddly not the one I have arguably benefited from the most. KDE is great and I love it, but it's not the part of the my OS's that does the heavy lifting. Maybe buying one of these as a counter to the MS-Tax makes it even more worth it.

Either way it will be interesting to watch and personally I hope they succeed. Cell phone companies in the US are organized crime and I support anything that forces them to play better with others - like phones being marketed by outside companies.

[kubicle]

It's still a vapor device at the moment: but if they follow through with the hardware design they claim, it will be the best phone currently available. The real issue will be price point.

The thing is it's not "currently available". I think I read they plan to ship mid-to-late 2014, and the specs might be rather pedestrian by then...at least for the price.

One final point: SADBFL aside, I have benefited greatly from the work of Canonical without contributing a dime to them. I have supported other linux projects (distros, games, etc.) through the years but oddly not the one I have arguably benefited from the most. KDE is great and I love it, but it's not the part of the my OS's that does the heavy lifting. Maybe buying one of these as a counter to the MS-Tax makes it even more worth it.

Have you really benefited that much from the "work of Canonical"? Ubuntu is 99% Debian, and the remaining 1% has lately been Mir/Unity and putting crapware on top of it.

[SteveRiley]

I realise this opinion is based on what Canonical says it will/can do because the device isn't available yet, but at first blush there is no way you can compare the Edge with the crappy Windows phones. Other than the fact you can make a phone call with both, they have little or nothing in common.

Joke, dude. You know this, of course.

Personally (again just a consumer opinion, not an industry insider) I think it's a mis-charactorization to refer to Windows users as a "Loyal fan base"...I don't know anyone who extoles the virtues of any MS product.

The thousands of people who queued up for 1.5 hours at TechEd to buy a Surface tablet would probably call themselves fans. (Are there any good-looking nerds? First criteria: do not wear a vendor backpack.)



I know the tens of thousands of people who come to TechEd every year also count themselves as fans. TechNet forums are filled with fanboys. Every platform has its share of cheerers and jeerers.

Their attempt at a cell phone OS failed precisely because it was MS.

There is a certain amount of truth to this. But it's far more because of political infighting within the teams than any kind of technological shortcomings. Wanna see what a phone by committee looks like? Now you know.

In fact, it wouldn't surprize me to find out that most Windows phone users were not computer users at all.

The only "segment" in which Microsoft has had some success is among techies, and usually pro-Windows techies. And Microsoft employees, of course. I pay attention to who fiddles with what when I'm on the bus or waiting in line. When I see someone with a Windows Phone, I ask, "Hey, do you work for Microsoft"? Keep in mind, I'm in the land where these things come from. Half the people say yes. Of the other half, all are Boomers or Gen-Xers. I have yet to encounter a Millenial with a Windows Phone. The Kin Phone disaster likely poisoned the Millenial well permanently.

but they might just have a niche market. If they get a toehold, it could take off and become a really excellent third choice for cell phone buyers. Turst me, with a market place as large as the mobile device market, third place will mean billions.

I dearly hope this would happen. Perhaps Canonical can even replace the current third-place incumbent. It would certainly make these stories about polarization and profits much more interesting.

It's still a vapor device at the moment: but if they follow through with the hardware design they claim

I suspect this is where some of my and others' cynicism lies. "Canonical" and "follow through" are not exactly buddies, and the device landscape is littered with the carcasses of non-Android and non-iPhone failures.

Maybe buying one of these as a counter to the MS-Tax makes it even more worth it... Either way it will be interesting to watch and personally I hope they succeed. Cell phone companies in the US are organized crime and I support anything that forces them to play better with others - like phones being marketed by outside companies.

You and I are in complete and enthusiastic agreement here.

[SteveRiley]

http://blog.novacut.com/2013/07/what...lly-about.html

From the article:

This crowdfunding campaign isn't really about whether Canonical can afford to produce a limited-run phone. More than the phone itself, Ubuntu Edge is about showing the world that Ubuntu Phone has legs, that there is real demand for this. Even if Mark Shuttleworth can afford to fund Ubuntu Edge, he shouldn't. This campaign may be the greatest statement the community can possibly make to support Ubuntu Touch.

The Ubuntu community is being asked to show that Ubuntu isn't just a great open source project with a track record for excellent software engineering, but a community willing to support hardware development. The community is proving to OEMs that there is a viable market for hardware with Ubuntu Touch and proving to carriers that people want to buy this hardware.

This is actually a compelling and entirely sensible argument, one that had escaped me.

[oshunluvr]

@kubicle: I agree with you to a point. Canonical has contributed in some ways. If no,t why base our KDE distro on them at all? Obviously, something went into that decision.

@steve: The first line of my last post were more in response to GG's comment about market share. My poorly worded point was more that windows phones are a different market than the Ubuntu phone will be IMO. Thus, not a totally fair comparision. If the Ubuntu phone fails, I think it will be for different reasons than the windows phones. I loved the side-by interface shot.

As far as windows fanbois at TE: I had no idea that their were so many dupes in the IT world. Really? Lined up for the Surface? Have you seen the specs? It's barely a glorified chalkboard. I considered picking one up used just to hack it and put linux on it, but once I saw how weak it was I decided it wasn't worth my time. I wouldn't have stood in that line if they were giving them away for free.

And I totally agree with the cynicism. Canonical has dropped or half-a$$ed more projects than I care to count. Hopefully with the potential of real profits they'll follow through this time. Or maybe I'm insane...

[SteveRiley]

@steve: The first line of my last post were more in response to GG's comment about market share. My poorly worded point was more that windows phones are a different market than the Ubuntu phone will be IMO. Thus, not a totally fair comparision. If the Ubuntu phone fails, I think it will be for different reasons than the windows phones. I loved the side-by interface shot.

A 3.2 market share is largest Microsoft has ever had, and it even shows hints of whispers of shadows of getting larger. For those committed to the Microsoft platform and suites, there is a lot to like about the thing. ActiveSync -- dare I say it -- has had much time to mature. It kicks some ass quite nicely. But the dearth of apps is the single largest hindrance to more rapid adoption. Better integration with corporate stuff appears not to trump zillions of games and entertainment apps.

As far as windows fanbois at TE: I had no idea that their were so many dupes in the IT world. Really?

Hey d00d, some of these are my peeps! I made a nice career out of luring them by the tens of thousands into conference halls for nearly a decade. LOL

Seriously...for generic enterprise workloads, when you want your directory and email and calendar and document repository and softphone and access/authorization enforcer and cloud and backup manager and central configuration manager and update distribution service to just.frackin.work, no one can beat the Windows Server extended family. It is expensive, yes. Probably more expensive than free software and some talented admins. But talented admins are fickle; they'll take the skills they learned on your dime and go work for your competitor. A certain cold, calculated logic enters into strategic IT purchasing decisions when you're dealing with the scale of medium and large enterprises.

Have you seen the specs? It's barely a glorified chalkboard.

I was thinking more along these lines.

[kubicle]

Canonical has contributed in some ways. If no,t why base our KDE distro on them at all? Obviously, something went into that decision.

In the early days Ubuntu was quite promising, a less-geek-oriented Debian for the masses with a reliable release schedule and a company to spread some development money around while still being community oriented...why not put KDE on it. The smokescreen has evaporated since then, and the early promise seems like a distant memory.

Don't get me wrong, I still think Kubuntu is a fine distro (the kubuntu devs do an awesome job of packaging KDE), because I can run it without caring much about what Canonical does...The only piece of software with Canonical as the upstream I'm forced to use is upstart (and I'd switch to systemd in a heartbeat). But I doubt anyone would bother to create kubuntu if one had to start from scratch now.

[oshunluvr]

LOL. To be fair the Surface Pro has "real" computer specs. Still, at $800+ not worth it to me.

My company uses linux in it's products and friggin' windows in our offices. I just don't get that move at all. I do get a twice-yearly admonition to check my work computers to be sure there is no licensed software on them that I don't absolutely need because the MS "Police" are coming to visit.

[oshunluvr]

In the early days Ubuntu was quite promising, a less-geek-oriented Debian for the masses with a reliable release schedule and a company to spread some development money around while still being community oriented...why not put KDE on it. The smokescreen has evaporated since then, and the early promise seems like a distant memory.

Don't get me wrong, I still think Kubuntu is a fine distro (the kubuntu devs do an awesome job of packaging KDE), because I can run it without caring much about what Canonical does...The only piece of software with Canonical as the upstream I'm forced to use is upstart (and I'd switch to systemd in a heartbeat). But I doubt anyone would bother to create kubuntu if one had to start from scratch now.

and if Mir comes about we'll be looking for a new base anyway. Hey, at least we'll get systemd at the same time as Wayland!

[whatthefunk]

This crowdfunding campaign isn't really about whether Canonical can afford to produce a limited-run phone. More than the phone itself, Ubuntu Edge is about showing the world that Ubuntu Phone has legs, that there is real demand for this. Even if Mark Shuttleworth can afford to fund Ubuntu Edge, he shouldn't. This campaign may be the greatest statement the community can possibly make to support Ubuntu Touch.

The Ubuntu community is being asked to show that Ubuntu isn't just a great open source project with a track record for excellent software engineering, but a community willing to support hardware development. The community is proving to OEMs that there is a viable market for hardware with Ubuntu Touch and proving to carriers that people want to buy this hardware.

This is actually a compelling and entirely sensible argument, one that had escaped me.

They could also shoot themselves in the foot and show just how limited the market for Ubuntu phones is. If they fail to make the target, they basically show the world that the number of people who want a Ubuntu phone is extremely limited.

Also, I think its important to note that none of the entrepreneur packs have sold. (I dont quite know what Canonical is thinking with this option...buying 100 phones for $80,000 means your spending $800 per phone and in order to make a profit with that, youd probably want to sell them for at least $900 each. I dont know many people who arent Ubuntu fans who would spend $900 on a phone from a more or less unheard of company.) It shows that nobody really wants to take the leap quite yet.

[Buddlespit]

In the XDA world, there was a lot of initial enthusiasm for Ubuntu on the Sprint Samsung Galaxy S3. There were a couple of failed ports and the enthusiasm dried up. But, and I can promise this, if the Edge can be ported, it will be ported and a goodly amount of users will try it (including me). And if it doesn't live up to its promises, it will be kicked to the side and interest will go to something else.

[oshunluvr]

They could also shoot themselves in the foot and show just how limited the market for Ubuntu phones is. If they fail to make the target, they basically show the world that the number of people who want a Ubuntu phone is extremely limited.

Also, I think its important to note that none of the entrepreneur packs have sold. (I dont quite know what Canonical is thinking with this option...buying 100 phones for $80,000 means your spending $800 per phone and in order to make a profit with that, youd probably want to sell them for at least $900 each. I dont know many people who arent Ubuntu fans who would spend $900 on a phone from a more or less unheard of company.) It shows that nobody really wants to take the leap quite yet.

My take on the $80,000 bundle is it's a "Enterprise" pack, not entrepreneur. Point being it's intended for a business to migrate away from Blackberry or MS Enterprise stuff to Linux Enterprise stuff, ie.e file sharing, hosted email, work group stuff, etc.