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    How much oil?

    BP's first claim about the volume of oil gushing from the Deep Water Horizon was 5,000 bbl/day.

    Other sources looking at the video from the well head, along with assessments of the oil seen on the surface and floating in plumes under the surface, estimated the rate at 10K to 12K bbl/day. One source, ridiculed as being "wild", claimed 100K bbl/day were leaking from the well head.

    Today, BP stated in the page showing the live video of the gushing well head:
    http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_inte...ise_ROV_2.html
    that they collected 14,800 barrels yesterday, and a total 42,500 barrels in the last four days. Imaging that ... they are collecting nearly 3X as much oil as they initially claimed was leaking.

    One can compare the photo captured four days ago, before they started collecting oil, with the images shown today and see how little difference there is.

    I believe they've known the true rate all along, because of rate sensors in the BOP or flow meters placed in the stream, and other locations, tell exactly how much oil is leaking out. They've been lying to us all along. So are the gov agencies mandated to protect OUR environment and US.

    I've been watching the videos every day during BP's attempts to shut down the well. I've come to the conclusion that they never intended to shut down the well. IMO, their intention was/is to get as much of the oil out of the well head as they can. There have been some excellent suggestions given to BP, the EPA and the Coast Guard, made by very talented people, on how to SHUTOFF the well head. They are ignored. They ignore the local governments cries for help. One could say that BP is telling the Feds what BP will or will not do, and the Feds are saying "yes sir!". Nice Cartel.

    BP collected $3M worth of oil in the last four days. IF they sustain 14,000 bbl or more per day for the next month they'll collect $30M for that oil. Between now and the end of the year they'll "earn" $184M. Between now and the end of the year, at the present rate of leakage, 2.5 MILLION Barrels of oil will leak into the Gulf. That's 105 MILLION Gallons of trouble on top of what has already leaked. This is to say NOTHING of the MILLIONS of gallons of toxic "Corexit" dispersant pumped into the Gulf as well. It's 30% "proprietary" formula, which they won't share with the Feds or the EPA (amazing isn't it?) is proven to create, when mixed with oil, a toxic effect that kills ALL living organisms at 2.61 parts per million.



    The flow rate out from underneath the cap before they began collecting oil and the flow rate afterward do NOT look significantly different. IOW, collecting 0.16 barrels of oil per second does not appear to have significantly reduced the amount of oil that is flowing out from under the cap, even with one "door" closed. IF that is so, then the flow of oil must be significantly larger than 0.16 bbl/sec. If it is 1 barrel/second that amounts to 86,400 barrels per day. Two bbl/sec would be twice that, or 172,800 barrels/day. Striking a happy medium it would appear that the "wild" estimate of 100,000 barrels per day is not, unfortunately, as wild as some thought. 175,000 barrels per day doesn't seem out of line, tragically.

    "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
    – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

    #2
    Re: How much oil?

    +1

    Comment


      #3
      Re: How much oil?

      It is a foamy mix of gas and oil, highly compressed at whatever the pressure is at that depth (a big number). As it rises, it expands. IMHO, no one knows within 30% what the true figures at sea level would be, but a whole lotta people refuse to admit that simple fact. :P

      Comment


        #4
        Re: How much oil?

        True, to an extent.

        While gas is compressible at up to, typically, 1000:1, oil is not, foamy or otherwise. The principal gas is Methane. It's Critical Temp is around 194K and the Critical Pressure is 46 atmospheres. At 5,000 ft beneath the surface the pressure is 148 atmospheres. So the pressure is high enough to liquify Methane but the Temperature is not. No amount of pressure can liquify gas that is warmer than its Tc. So, the gas compresses to near the liquification volume, but remains a gas. The 30,000,000 cu ft of gas would be compressed by a factor of 630:1, give or take a little.

        BP reported flaring 30,000,000 cu ft of gas yesterday. That would be only about 48,000 cu ft compressed. Over a day that would amount to 0.555 cu ft/sec. Assume 1 bbl/sec of oil is escaping, or 86,400 bbl/day. One barrel, or 42 gallons, of oil is 5.16 cu ft. Subtracting the gas would leave 4.605 cu ft/sec of oil, or 0.89 bbl/sec. That would amount to 76,896 bbls/day, of which BP claimed 14,500 bbls yesterday, leaving 62,396 bbls per day escaping into the environment. That value is still 3X that given by various pundits.


        What we do KNOW for sure is that the volume of oil presenting at the well head isn't 5,000 or 10,000 or 12,000 or even 15,000 bbls/per day. If it were the latter there would be little oil escaping into the environment. The fact that recovering 14,5000 yesterday didn't make a visibly noticeable reduction in the flow suggests that the amount leaking is way beyond 15,000 bbls/day. It wouldn't surprise me if the real value were 80K bbl/day or more. The "wild" 100K bbl/day doesn't seem so wild to me, but that's why I estimate the leakage to be about 1 bbl/sec.
        "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
        – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

        Comment


          #5
          Re: How much oil? 1000,000 barrels?

          100,000 barrels? That's what I've thought, too.
          http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7146713.ece
          It looks like I am not alone.
          "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
          – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

          Comment


            #6
            Re: How much oil?

            Just read a report today where they uped that guesstimation to 50,000 and they said then maybe higher, so you are correct. They've really screwed up. Earth doesn't have a chance.

            Comment


              #7
              Re: How much oil?

              I learned why BP has been so consistent in its attempts to low-ball the estimates of the amount of oil leaking. They have to pay a penalty of $430 per barrel of oil that is leaked into the environment.

              Using the 100K barrel/day estimate, which has been leaking for 51 days, reports say that it could be another 100 days before BP can seal the well. That would total to a $6.5 Billion dollar penalty for BP. Their profits for the 2009 year were $14 Billion dollars. They brag that they have paid out $50 Million in reparations so far. That is 1/3rd of 1% of last years profits.

              Some are whining that criticizing BP would affect it value and reduce the incomes of lots of retired folks who have invested in BP. Boo hoo. Cry me a river. Where were these board members and stock holders when BP cut corners on the Alaska pipeline maintenance which caused over 500 leaks during a time when the production was gradually dropping from 2 million barrels per day to 400,000 barrels per day. Collecting bonuses and dividends. The problems came to a head when the pipe sprung a leak of 6,700 barrels onto the ground over 5 days before it was detected. BP has a history of increasing profits by cutting safety procedures, just like they did in the Gulf.

              Never enough time or money to do it right ...
              "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
              – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

              Comment


                #8
                Re: How much oil?

                The "estimates" keep rising!

                The rising estimate has become a central feature of the oil spill narrative. Originally the government pegged the spill at 1,000 barrels a day, then soon raised that to 5,000 barrels, then 12,000 to 19,000 barrels, and then, just last week to 20,000 to 40,000 barrels (840,000 to 1.68 million gallons).
                Today they announced that about 60,000 barrels per day are flowing out of the well head.

                Here's what you see on the TV feed (use VLC): mms://a1146.l9789221145.c97892.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1146/97892/v0001/reflector:21145

                Here's the other side of the well head: mms://a1686.l9789245685.c97892.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1686/97892/v0001/reflector:45685

                BIG difference in obvious flow rates. The second mms stream, which I've been watching for over a week, suddenly nearly doubled the night the rig was hit by lightening.

                It has been my estimate that at least a barrel per second (86,400 bbl/day) and as much as 100,000 bbls/day was gushing out of the well head. I now believe that 100,000 bbl estimate is low.

                "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
                – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

                Comment

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