COVID-19 and streaming video

[verndog]

...
(The more I use systemd the more I like it)

Me too. If you visit Distrowatch, one would think everyone is against systemd. Another week another systemd bashing over there. Its begs the question, do they even use their computer to do work.

[Don B. Cilly]

About the virus, this looks hopeful:
Note that the epidemic in China started one month earlier than in Italy, and I don't see why the curve should be much different elsewhere.


Source: Worldometers

[mbohets]

In the west it could take longer for the epidemic to stabilize, as China took very strict measures to contain it,
and as politicians here are afraid to be punished in the next elections may not be able to take the same kind of unpopular measures.
The advantage we have over China is that we are warned, and China was not, so that could be a factor that improves our situation.

[Don B. Cilly]

Well, (South) Korea didn't take very strict measures to contain it at all, and the curve, with one month's delay, looks similar - actually better. Considering the Patient 31 incident and all.



The reasons for the low death rate and proper responses are quite sensibly explained here.
A rare case of non-sensationalist journalism.
An excerpt:
"Amid the outbreak, neighboring China has used a “Great Wall” strategy to cordon off entire cities. South Korea has stuck to a liberal playbook: even its most affected city, Daegu, has not been isolated. This makes Seoul’s apparent success in the struggle against Covid-19 a potential benchmark for other affected democracies."

Consider that, contrary to China, Korea isn't really much of a totalitarian state.

[GreyGeek]

There are all kinds of conspiracy theories, also one that claims the US released it in China as part of their war with China, to ruin their economy.
So it goes both ways, and there is no evidence for either of them, so as long as there is no evidence, it is pure speculation.

China made the claim that COVID-19 was released in China by US military visiting Wuhan last October, which makes no sense considering the incubation period of the virus, but the claim does what it was designed to do: deflect blame from China's mishandling of the virus by suppressing news about it, which prevented those responsible for public safety from doing their job.

[GreyGeek]

Me too. If you visit Distrowatch, one would think everyone is against systemd. Another week another systemd bashing over there. Its begs the question, do they even use their computer to do work.

I noticed that too.

I will never use an operating system that does not have three components: systemd, btrfs and KDE, and Kubuntu has the best of all three.

[GreyGeek]

About the virus, this looks hopeful:
Note that the epidemic in China started one month earlier than in Italy, and I don't see why the curve should be much different elsewhere.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]8699[/ATTACH]
Source: Worldometers

The big spike on Feb 12 is NOT a big jump in cases, but a change in the way they diagnosed infections, which they immediately changed back.

[GreyGeek]

Tony Heller made some interesting comments about COVID-19

[Don B. Cilly]

I agree with everything in the video - and the conclusions - although:
1. COVID-19 is much more transmissible than flu...
The speaker says "if that were true..." - well it seems it is slightly more transmissible. But real numbers wise, still rather irrelevant.

2. Death rates are much higher than flu.
The speaker says "if that were true..." - well it seems they are slightly higher, among some (small) segments of the population. Numbers-wise, still irrelevant.

3. COVID-19 will overwhelm medical services.
Even though it can be true in some cases, they are isolated cases. But only because they are added to the existing ones, and only in places where the health systems has been badly pillaged in favour of other priorities - like bailing out banks...

4. Most carriers are asymptomatic, it's really hard to tell... a lot of flu cases are anyway... the Patient 31 incident in Korea would seem to disprove it... still rather irrelevant.

The simple numbers are, seasonal flu kills more than 300'000 people every year worldwide. This, judging by curves, looks likely to make 20'000 at most.
Overreaction, panic and useless measures are actually very likely to cause economies to crash, unemployment, famine, unrest, wars.
And 20'00 (mostly very elderly) deaths, in those conditions are nothing. Because we'll be looking at millions, of all ages, a lot of children. And the suffering will be worse than the deaths.
This is what we should stop. This is serious, not COVID-19.

[EDIT] I may add. Even just virus-wise, if healthcare is dependent on the welfare of the economy, and the real failings in this case seem to be just about healthcare systems not being able to cope with it, how is crashing the economy going to help?

[kyonides]

Also, I would never trust information coming out of China. Their leadership controls all info and suppressed initial reports of the corona virus in Wuhan. Why? After the 2003 SARS epidemic, China constructed the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory (Level 4) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. A second P4 facility in Wuhan, the Wuhan Institute of Virology is the only declared site in China capable of working with the virus. Then, after the outbreak, this event takes place: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...lab-Wuhan.html

The Chinese do outstanding science, and I have no doubt about their expertise in bioscience. But, accidents can happen.

The suggestion that COVID-19 is a bioweapon that escaped from Wuhan's P4 facility has been labelled a "conspiracy theory" all too quickly, IMO. IF it is/was a bioweapon the question I have is "did they engineer it to mutate quickly?". If not, then it will fade just like MERS and SARS did. If so, then there may not be a quick end to it. The flu goes away by the end of spring every year, as UV rays do their work. If COVID-19 stretches into summer and fall then things could get worse.

Regardless, the COVID-19 threat is greatest against the elderly and health compromised. I'm 79 and my wife is 77. I've got persistent AFIB and she has had two heart surgeries and has moderate pulmonary hypertension. Being flippant about CORVID-19 is NOT an attitude we will take. We'll wear masks and gloves when out in public.

Need to mention France provided some technical help so China could get its own Level 4 lab... French might have had good intentions, they just picked the wrong target...

I'm sorry to tell you this, GG, but I live in sunny Costa Rica as I usually call it and it's spreading like crazy. There are 69 confirmed cases and 1 decease in about 10 days only... And yes, UV rays are quite strong in my country. The UV factor is usually in the 12 to 15 range here.

I've heard some supermarkets now have a new schedule that includes about 2 hours for the elderly to relatively safely attend their stores without getting mixed with people of other age ranges.

[GreyGeek]

Another interesting, and somewhat alarming view of COVID-19

[Don B. Cilly]

Doubling rate? How about babbling rate?
And how about "China has reported no new locally transmitted coronavirus cases"
Source: CNN - today.
And the graph above still holding true - actually even truer?
And China having a month's head start on anyone else?
And "containment" measures being universally understood as only helping to contain the speed of the spread of the infection - therefore allowing the healthcare system to cope - but not the actual spread?

[Don B. Cilly]

An interesting curiosity: Hindoostan ;·)

India. Population: 1.4 bn. Total COVID deaths: 4
Pakistan. Population: 197 ml. Total COVID deaths: 2
Bangladesh. Population: 164 ml. Total COVID deaths: 1
Sri Lanka. Population: 21 ml. Total COVID deaths: 0.
Source: Worldometers

[oldgeek]

I live in Peru where we are under a national quarantine until the end of March (at least). Our first case was 6 March, and since then we've had 263 confirmed cases and 4 deaths--three of them 69 or older. The other was 47 years old. Most of the original infected citizens had apparently caught the disease in Spain--Madrid is the major airline hub for travelers to Europe from this part of the world. Peru has the highest UV radiation in the world, we're told, but we're into autumn now and the disease will probably spread a lot more in the next few days as more samples are taken. So the actual infection rate may be quite a bit higher since only around 4000 samples have been taken in a country of 30 million. From what I gather, the death rate from confirmed cases is around 2%--not especially high--but the problem is the speed at which the virus spreads. The measures taken so far are mainly designed to avoid the exponential increases in countries such as Spain and Italy, where 625 people dies in a single day. I'm 69 and in good health and like to go biking and swimming, so this quarantine is not pleasant to me. But if it works, it will be worth it.

[GreyGeek]

I'm 79 with persistent AFIB, my wife is 77 with two heart operations and pulmonary hypertension, and according to CDC and other sources the death rate for people in our age bracket is between 14-28%. Those are bad odds. Here in the US this may fizzle or explode, no one can really say with certainty. As an RNA virus like SARS and MERS it IS dangerous and not to be toyed with. I've been retired for 12 years and have a steady income, but a LOT of people will be suffering if most businesses shut down for any length of time. Financially, most people live a month-to-month existence and could not economically survive a month or two without income. Those 50 or younger generally don't have much to worry about because, unless they've been abusing their bodies, their immune system will fight off covid-19. I bet all the heavy smokers and those vaping are worried. The flower girl in my wedding 58 years ago smoked all of her adult life, just like my sister, and about 10 years ago she called me and asked if I thought she had emphysema (I used to teach anatomy&physiology and microbiology in college, among other classes). I said yes. This was just after my sister had died of emphysema due to smoking, who had visited me to ask the same question several years before she died. The flower girl quite smoking that day. About 5 years ago she began showing symptoms of COPD and a couple years ago was put on oxygen permanently because of full blown emphysema. She called a couple days ago to ask how we were and during the course of the conversation she mentioned that she and her husband, also a life long smoker who is also on oxygen, had just got back from a cruise to the Bahamas and they were going out to a dinner and a movie. Nothing like enjoying life, no matter how much of it you have left.