page 94 of live and let die

[HalationEffect]

The 97% figure is from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_...ific_consensus

A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analysed "1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers".

Emphasis mine.

Sorry, but I can't take anything that Roy Spencer says seriously, after reading these gems of his:

Earth and its ecosystems – created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence – are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting

I came to the realization that intelligent design, as a theory of origins, is no more religious, and no less scientific, than evolutionism.

I finally became convinced that the theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis than the theory of evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world.

If he's an expert in anything, it's self-delusion.

[whatthefunk]

And as to the whatthefunk's request to show that it is "global warming is not happening". Trying to prove a negative is not possible. One cannot point at "nothing" and say something is "not there".

That is a cop out. Prove to me that temperatures are not going up. Prove to me that greenhouse gases do not increase the temperature of the earth.

The problem with "greenhouse gasses" is a very simple one when one tries to "search" for "greenhouse gasses".

The single largest constituent of the "atmosphere" is water vapour and it is not "a gas" it is "a vapour'.....all of the searches produce nice listings and graphs of "gasses" of which Nitrogen is the largest component,

Nice fact checking, as usual.
According to Wikipedia, water vapor makes up on average 0.25% of the atmosphere but local conditions depend on weather. On the other hand, our atmosphere is 78% nitrogen.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth

notice the 5.35. It is not discussed in the wikipedia article but it is.... "a constant" ..."a fudge factor" that "scientists" have decided is a "good factor"..... well there are others who dissent...

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...-6-easy-steps/

Notice the term "complex"....what is lost in the discussions about all of this is that in "complex models"....the scientists form a "consensus" on how to "average".....numbers, or median or mode or whatever to get a "constant"...

Look harder.

http://www.google.co.jp/url?sa=t&rct...C3ov8sLO0040PQ

"The value 5.35 in this equation and the term [CO2]prein in the generalized equation demonstrate that the forcing parameter is based on the 100ppmv increase from the preindustrial value of 280ppmv and the 0.6°C of measured temperature over the time period that this 100ppmv increase occurred."

So this isnt just some magic number scientists pulled out of their asses. It is based on the change in CO2 and the measured temperature change.

the people promoting "global warming" conveniently forget to mention about water vapour, which is not "strictly" a "gas" and ..... guess what.... Jones dropped water vapour out of the equations for the reason that the water vapour in the air is "too variable".

WHAT IS .....the meaning of "too" variable.... well, if one uses the low end..... the numbers go down...if one uses the high end....the numbers go up! oops! water might be the problem..

Has the percent of water vapor in the air changed drastically in the last 100 years or so?

Another constituent left out is "volcanic ash"....now volcanic ash does not stay in the atomosphere for decades but, as referred to previously, it can persist for a long time and has contributed to great COOLINGS of the atmosphere....

Have there been more major eruptions in the past 100 years than previously?

So....YES..........."global warming" ....IS OCCURING.... because of solar cycles....

How do you know? Isnt there at least a chance it could be going up for other reasons?

The temperature for the last fifteen years has been NOT going up....it has been relatively flat..or going down....

http://www.forbes.com/sites/petergle...-climate-data/

I would also like to point quote you again:

So....YES..........."global warming" ....IS OCCURING.... because of solar cycles....

So you say it is warming, but that the temperatures are flat?

[SteveRiley]

Your friendly modReminder: keep it civil, boys. Facts: good. Challenges: good. Personal attacks: bad.

Carry on.

[whatthefunk]

You watch Fox News, dont you woodsmoke?

http://www.theguardian.com/environme...enial-fox-news

Fox News found to be a major driving force behind global warming denial

No surprises there.....

[woodsmoke]

Good analyses whatthefunk,

And no the scientists do not pull the numbers "out of their ......".... they do their best to come up with a "best number" that is usually a consensus opinion.

But, still a "constant" is a construction that is used......."to make the equation work".

An example being Rydberg's constant in the Ideal Gas Law. The Ideal Gas Law combines all of the other gas laws. However, "to get it to work" they had to stick in Rydberg's Constant.

Now one can argue that the gas law "just wouldn't work" without the constant being included but that misses the point.

The ideal gas law does not work without the constant.

In like manner, the "forcings" don't work without the constant thrown in.

And.... they had to do that because since the equation itself is LOGARITHMIC..... as CO2 INCREASES..... THE FORCING EFFECT...........DECREASES.....

go back and read the quote from Wikipedia.....don't believe me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bohr_model

http://coraifeartaigh.wordpress.com/...e-ol-gas-laws/

But to get back to the what I asked before...

Did you LOOK AT...STUDY THE GRAPH?

Yes.....the global temperatures are rising......from the Maunder Minimum, the Little Ice Age.

And yes......the temperatures have leveled out world wide for the last fifteen years.......

But that does not mean that the world is suddenly going to have a "stable" climate so we can all go to the beach year round.

It also does not mean that the world is going to "suddenly" go into an Ice Age.

(BTW, the really smart scientists of a few decades ago predicted...."global cooling"....

And what is quite worthy of note...is that the proponents of global cooling......had an "orbital forcing"......

talk about deja vu!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling

So yes!!! THERE IS GLOBAL WARMING.....

Since graphs can't seem to get the point across perhaps a few pictures might be illustrative and some text from:

1865 the LATEST in MANY MASSIVE "frosts"...

9th Jan: So I went from Westminster Stayres to Lambeth, and din'd with the Archbishop: after dinner and discourse with his grace till evening prayers, Sir Geo. Wheeler and I walked over the ice from Lambeth Stayres to the horse ferry. to the Horse Ferry.

16th Jan: The Thames was fill'd with people and tents,

BECAUSE IT WAS FROZEN OVER SOLID...woodsmoke

selling all sorts of wares as in the Citty.

24th Jan: The frost continuing more and more severe,

the Thames before London was still planted with boothes in formal streetes,

all sorts of trades and shops furnish'd and full of commodities, even to a printing presse, where ye people and ladyes tooke a fancy to have their names printed, and the day and yeare set down, when printed on the Thames:

this humour tooke so universally, that 'twas estimated the printer gain'd £5. a day, for printing a line onely, at six-pence a name, beside what he got by ballads, &c.

Coaches plied from Westminster to the Temple, and from several other staires to and fro, as in the streetes, sliding with skeetes,

a bull-baiting, horse and coach races, puppet plays and interludes, cookes, tipling and other lewd places,

so that it seemed a bacchanalian triumph or carnival on the water,

whilst it was a severe judgement on the land, the trees not onely splitting as if lightning-struck,

but men and cattle perishing in divers[e] places,

and the very seas so lock'd up with ice, that no vessels could stir out or come in.

The fowles, fish, and birds, and all our exotiq plants and greenes universally perishing. Many parkes of deer were destroied, and all sorts of fuell so deare that there were greate contributions to preserve the poore alive.


Nor was this severe weather much less intense in most parts of Europe, even as far as Spaine and the most southern tracts.

London, by reason of the excessive coldnesse of the aire hindering the ascent of the smoke, was so filled with the fulginous steame of the sea-coale, that hardly could one see crosse the streets, and this filling the lungs with its grosse particles, exceedingly obstructed the breast, so as one could hardly breathe.

Here was no water to be had from the pipes and engines, nor could the brewers and divers[e] other tradesmen worke, and every moment was full of disastrous accidents.

An Illustration of a Frost Fair.

ALL of those PERMANENT STRUCTURES are on a completely frozen Thames River..



Another in colour:



This is a fascinating read about the absoluely devastating cold that occured many times over a couple of centuries....

The Maunder Minimum or "Little Ice Age".

http://thames.me.uk/s00051.htm

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Hans Brinker, (1865) a fictional story, would not have been popular, it would have been laughed away..... if not for the fact...

That the people reading it were acutely aware of just how cold it was back then...

The readers did not need a "willing suspension of disbelief"......they lived the excruciating cold.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Br..._Silver_Skates



Peter Brugel the Elder recorded, visually, the effects of an earlier devastating set of years in his "Flemish Paintings". (yes I am WELL AWARE that they were part of a "cycle", but that is not the point)



So.....yes....global warming ....IS occuring..... from the Maunder Minimum.....

And yes the temperature will continue to go up....

And it can reach two degrees higher, or whatever the latest consensus about "how much" it was higher....and

rather like the Knights jousting.... it seems that it will not be THAT bad....

And yes.....the temps for the last fifteen years have remained stable.....

that does not mean that the world temps will go down....

they will go up.....

for the same reasons that they have always gone up.

WHAT SHOULD REALLY BE the worry....

a) malaria.....instead of wasting billions on a trumped up AGW.....

we should NOW be spending millions to develop a way to eliminate mosquitoes from the face of the earth.... because even a fractional rise in the sea levels, which WILL happen....as a normal course of events...

Remember....glaciers....oceans....glaciers....ocea ns....glaciers....oceans....

That is why the Missouri River is where it is today....the last glacier stopped there...

and that is why there are sea shells on "mountain" tops.....

even a fractional rise in the oceanic levels will massively increase malaria....

Ummmmm I guess nobody noticed that the WONDERFUL...... World Health Organization..... has lifted the ban on use of DDT.... because so many millions have died from Malaria....the predicted wonder killers that were going to be so green and oootchie kootchie kooo didn't work out....

Basically, the WHO thinks that humans are more important than birds.

From the mouths of people who LIVE with Malaria deaths as opposed to

armchair environmental "activists" who live comfortably in the U.S.

Lift of Ban on DDT Hailed

Hundreds of Ugandans took to the streets of Kampala to praise the World Health Organization (WHO) and the new leader of its malaria program, Dr. Arata Kochi, for publicly authorizing the use of DDT for malaria control.



After decades of failure and increasing disease that led to millions of deaths, things are finally changing. Ever since a Malaria Expert Committee meeting in 1998, the WHO position has been that for some time to come there will continue to be a role for DDT in combating malaria. However, many officials still did not publicly support the chemical’s use in controlling this killer disease.



On September 15, in Washington DC, Dr. Kochi issued revised guidelines that underscore the major role that DDT and other insecticides will again play in preventing malaria. Indoor spraying and ACT drugs are vital to any cohesive, comprehensive, effective program, he emphasized.Euphoric Ugandans, many of whom have lost loved ones to this dreaded disease, see this policy as an opportunity for Uganda to look forward to the eventual eradication of malaria.



Uganda suffers 100,000 deaths annually, notes Minister of Health Dr. Stephen Malinga, the equivalent of a jetliner with 275 people slamming into the Ruwenzori Mountains every day.

From the African Executive, published in.....ummmmm AFRICA

http://www.africanexecutive.com/modu...hp?article=949

The SMART money would be to spend money KNOWING THAT GLOBAL WARMING....IS....INDEED HAPPENING.......

And work to reduce the forseeable risks associated therewith.

Now.... will Miami float out into the ocean....NO....

BUT.....let us say it did.... does anyone know what a Levee is....I think that people in New Orleans do...

The DUTCH built a "levee" around just about the whole country....

But...not to worry, even if AGW IS occuring.... the predicted sea rise will give us a couple of centuries to .....

um do what we do best in the U.S.

blow up buildings and build new ones elsewhere.....

Up on "knob hill" where all the evil rich folks, and intellectual elites live.... they can move to the high ground in Maui! lol

AGAIN....have you even LOOKED at the graphs?

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RE: Fox News......have I mentioned a SINGLE link to Fox News?....Um....no......

Almost all of my links have been to the much beloved, of the left, Wikipedia.....

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wooddefinitelybelievesthatglobalwarmingisoccuringa ndwillcontinuetodososmoke