Microsoft's Extinction Event

[GreyGeek]

Soon after I wrote a post about de Icaza abandoning MoonLight I read this article:
http://www.i-programmer.info/profess...ion-event.html

Microsoft is currently going though a mass extinction event bigger than anything the programming world has seen before.

...

The shift from Windows to WinRT is the equivalent of the Yucatan meteor and as yet the dead dinosaurs of technology are still walking around and looking viable - but we aren't across the RT boundary just yet.

In one shift Microsoft has sidelined many pieces of technology and left others in a lonely isolation.
...
The message that is coming from Microsoft is very clear - use C++.
...
WinRT doesn't support any of the features that made Windows what it is - in other words, overlapping windows and preemptive multitasking. Yes, it could be that if WinRT/Metro is the way of the future then Windows with windows and multitasking is doomed.

There is more to read, but between the lines what the author is really suggesting is that rather than seeing the extinction of some developer tools what we may be seeing is the extinction of Windows itself, and by implication, Microsoft.

[woodsmoke]

LOL

woodsmoke

[SteveRiley]

Extinction appears to be a theme today...

Fear and Loathing and Windows 8: or, why Windows 8 scares me, and should scare you too.

What to do if you're an app developer

This is the hardest question to answer. Platform transitions create a wonderful opportunity for developers because customers are most willing to look at new apps when they first try a platform. If you get in there early with a great Windows 8 Metro app, your company might take off spectacularly. If a competitor does Metro first, you'll be vulnerable.

On the other hand, if you bet big on Windows 8 and it fails, you'll be stuck. Even if it just sells slowly at first, you could easily run out of money before Microsoft fixes the problem. A poor quarter is a bump in the road for Microsoft; it could be an extinction event for you.

[woodsmoke]

Ya know....sometimes all it takes is a "turn of phrase"....and things change..

woodsmoke

[GreyGeek]

Interesting article, Steve!

He encountered the same difficulties which generated the same feelings I encountered and felt when I ran Win8. Going back to it several times hasn't smoothed out the roughness.

From the article:

Windows 8 is not Windows!
.....
But when a platform makes a major transition, people are forced to stop and reconsider their purchase. They're going to have to learn something new anyway, so for a brief moment they are open to possibly switching to something else. The more relearning people have to do, the more willing they are to switch. Rapid changes in OS and app market share usually happen during transitions like this.

IMO, a MAJOR tsunami will take place when Microsoft rolls out Win8.

Most Windows users will remain with WinXP or Win7 unless or until Microsoft pushes them out of those boats. I don't know how long after Win8 is released that will be, but it will depend on when and how much money Microsoft needs to generate.

Those that realize they do not need a PC and can get along just fine with a smartphone or tablet will switch to a product by Apple or Google. Microsoft will have lost their business forever because WinPhone 7 or 8 has NO viable market share, and Metro will NOT improve that situation. Smartphone App developers were stepped on by Microsoft on the Win8 platform and are in no mood to be patsies again.

That leaves folks who want to use a desktop, laptop, or tablet PC. Those going to tablets will opt for those running iOS or Android. Enterprise and users like me who want or need a full size desktop or laptop with mechanical keyboard and a screen 15" or bigger will be at the mercy of PC OEMs.

As long as a OEM vends a PC that allows me to install Linux on it I am not concerned. If their devices collude with Microsoft to keep non MS operating systems off the hardware then I will find a hardware vendor that offers a box on which Linux can be installed, compatibly, or I will switch from a laptop to a desktop, which I can make myself from parts. The money I save doing that will be spent on an Android tablet for portability needs.

Of all the users who will benefit from the switch to Linux the military, government and enterprise spaces will benefit the most. Those that can convert their required applications from *.exe's to Java or C++ cross platform tools will do so, and in doing that will switch to a version of Linux. Most like one that matches XP's DE closely...... KDE 4.x. To be sure, many will use Win8 in its Win7 mode, hiding Metro from the user, but Microsoft will do its best to recycle their walk into the money treadmill to generate more revenue.

In the USA I expect the Linux market share to rise another 12-15% to around 25%. Apple will rise another 10% to 25%. So, I'm predicting that Microsoft will lose 20-25% of its USA user base by rolling Win8 out the door. And, it could trigger a tsunami in which users abandon Microsoft in droves, with half or more of WinXX users moving to Apple, Google or Linux. Financially, since Microsoft is a big, slow moving, bloated behemoth, the loss of revenue could financially destroy it. When their infrastructure support requirements are greater than their revenue they must cut their infrastructure. That will cause fear in the investment community and investors could move out of Microsoft stocks, devaluing the company, cutting revenue, forcing more layoffs, scaring investors... until the doors close.

[SecretCode]

I'd say that two of the biggest drivers for Windows are businesses - who will basically follow whatever it takes to run Ms Office - and gamers. Unless Microsoft manages to release an amazing Office Suite 2013 that only runs under Metro, businesses will stay with Win 7, despite all the pre-installed Win8 licences they get with new hardware - they'll "downgrade" them to 7 just like they "downgraded" Vista to XP. (And the internal IT support challenges for win8 will possibly be greater than the difference between vista and xp.) Will game developers release Metro-only game editions, unless it really takes off? I don't think so.

[ronw]

I work with a tiny segment of the market (non-profits with typically less than 100 employees). Any talk of dumping Windows has always been met with cries of "You're not taking away Outlook" and "You're not taking away Excel". (Does anyone love Word?) Increasingly though, the kids coming out of college see Outlook as a dinosaur their parents use, and non-profits that have switched to Google Apps for Education have reduced their new-hire computer training needs to "Here's your GApps login and password. Have fun."

[JontheEchidna]

I'd say that two of the biggest drivers for Windows are businesses - who will basically follow whatever it takes to run Ms Office - and gamers. Unless Microsoft manages to release an amazing Office Suite 2013 that only runs under Metro, businesses will stay with Win 7, despite all the pre-installed Win8 licences they get with new hardware - they'll "downgrade" them to 7 just like they "downgraded" Vista to XP. (And the internal IT support challenges for win8 will possibly be greater than the difference between vista and xp.) Will game developers release Metro-only game editions, unless it really takes off? I don't think so.

With the confirmation of Valve porting their Steam client to Linux, and with rumors about them going in to the hardware business with their "Steambox" concept along with Gabe Newell's criticism of Windows 8, I have this fantasy that this is all part of the plan to offer a Linux-based computer gaming platform that utilizes Linux under-the-hood. This would effectively allow Valve and those who publish games via Steam to sidestep the complications of Metro/Win8 and allow them to provide their games to Steambox and Linux in general. PC gamers (who will stay away from Windows 8 with a 10 foot polee would then be able to either buy a Steambox, or install a Linux distribution either rolled by Valve or by one or more of the major distributors out there, and still be able to use all the games from the Steam ecosystem.

It seems plausible to me, but again it's just speculation.

[blobfish]

...and with rumors about them going in to the hardware business with their "Steambox"...

Will this include open source friendly graphics hardware?

[JontheEchidna]

Well, like I said, it's existence is a rumor...

[SecretCode]

I think I agree. Businesses and gamers will stay on Win 7 rather than move to Metro ... but moving gamers to Linux and businesses to Linux/cloud is a whole other, and more interesting, discussion!

[NickStone]

Interesting comments about the demise of Microsoft due to Windows 8. When netbooks were first released over here in the UK I believe they had Windows XP pre-installed then when Vista was released and as it was too big to fit in to a netbook the manufacturers went with Linux until Windows 7 was released now you cannot find a netbook with Linux on it but Windows 7. With the release of Windows 8 whats the betting that Microsoft will "force" manufacturers to pre-install Windows 8 on to tablet and smart-phone devices and thereby increasing market share on those devices? After all they did with the desktop pc; laptop and netbook markets.

[SteveRiley]

the manufacturers went with Linux until Windows 7 was released now you cannot find a netbook with Linux on it

For a short while, you could order HP's Mini series netbooks with a Linux build. It was Ubuntu Hardy Heron (8.04), with HP's own UI, the Mobile Internet Experince. The repos are still open. I found the original installer .IMG buried deep within HP's FTP server and put in on my Mini a few months ago. It looks nice, but because the OS is so old it lacks support for modern power management and it drained the battery in 75 minutes!

[NickStone]

For a short while, you could order HP's Mini series netbooks with a Linux build. It was Ubuntu Hardy Heron (8.04), with HP's own UI, the Mobile Internet Experince. The repos are still open. I found the original installer .IMG buried deep within HP's FTP server and put in on my Mini a few months ago. It looks nice, but because the OS is so old it lacks support for modern power management and it drained the battery in 75 minutes!

But can you still buy this netbook with Linux pre-installed? That was the point of my statement. The fact that Microsoft "forced" netbook makers to pre-install Windows 7 instead of Linux forced people to buy only Windows 7 netbooks. I predict they will do the same with tablets as well as desktop/laptops. And with UEFI now becoming part of new tablets/desktop/laptop/netbook computers it will be very difficult for us Linux users to replace Windows 8.

[SteveRiley]

Well, I wouldn't say they forced anyone to do anything. But through the power of financial coercion, Microsoft made it cheap enough for OEMs to use Windows that they abandoned Linux. ZDNet summarized the situation well in a 2011 article.