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**GreyGeek** · Apr 12, 2012, 10:00 AM

I think we had this discussion before. Five years ago there were 18 Ethanol production plants in Nebraska, ALL of the subsidized by the government. So much Corn was being diverted into Ethanol fuel production that food contributions to Africa and other countries noticeably declined, leading to an uproar. Americans were accused of starving the poor in order to drive their SUVs. To garner the farmer vote our Sen Nelson advocated "replacing oil fields with Corn fields".

Political reasons aside, there is another biological and energy reason why Corn is not a good gasoline substitute or replacement. Here is what I wrote at the time:

Replace oil fields with Corn fields?

In the USA, Corn is receiving considerable attention as a replacement for gasoline. Initially, Ethanol produced from Corn was added to gasoline in small amounts to replace environmentally toxic fuel additives used to prevent pinging. As the percentages of added Ethanol increased, eventually reaching 10% for Gasohol, farmers began to see Ethanol plants as big customers for their Corn. The Ethanol Industry set up front organizations to lobby Congress for subsidies and publicize Ethanol as a substitute for gasoline. Ethanol import tariffs already subsidize Ethanol production to the tune of 54 cents per gallon. Now that politicians have jumped on the Ethanol bandwagon they are presenting Ethanol as the answer to our energy problems. One politician had a campaign ad that suggests "corn fields may someday replace oil fields".

Independent studies by academic agricultural and environmental experts report that Ethanol requires an input of 54,725 BTU more for each gallon produced than you'd get by burning it. On the other hand, Ethanol industry sponsored studies claim Ethanol has a net energy of 17,058 BTU per gallon. Who is right? (An aside, it can be shown that academia is correct when one considers the energy inputs for herbicides, pesticides, diesel fuel, etc.. that are required to grow a bushel of Corn, which leads to 2.7 gallons of Ethanol.)

Let's look at the problem in another way. Assuming pro-Ethanol groups are correct, how much Corn will it take to replace gasoline as a source of energy?

From http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketin...06/012306.html we have the following facts:
1) The USDA's January estimate of the size of the 2005 U.S. Corn crop came in at 11.112 billion bushels.
2) Planted acreage of Corn in the U.S. in 2005 totaled 81.759 million acres, with a calculated yield of 135.9 bu/acre.

From Ethanol industry sources we find that the more efficient Ethanol plants can generate 2.68 gallons of Ethanol from each bushel of Corn. Therefore, 11.112 billion bushels of Corn, the TOTAL USA Corn production for 2005, can supply 30 billion gallons of Ethanol.

A fact of chemistry that economic theory cannot change is that Ethanol supplies 76,000 BTU/gallon and gasoline supplies 120,000 BTU/gallon. In other words, it takes 1.5789 gallons of Ethanol to replace the energy in 1 gallon of gasoline. That COULD mean that 30 billion gallons of Ethanol will replace 19 billions gallons of gasoline. But, in reality, Ethanol produced from Corn replaces even less. From a pro-Ethanol website, http://www.ethanol-gec.org/corn_eth.htm#concl:
"We conclude that the NEV of corn ethanol is positive when fertilizers are produced by modern processing plants, corn is converted in modern ethanol facilities, farmers achieve normal corn yields, and energy credits are allocated to coproducts. Our NEV estimate of 16,193 Btu/gal can be considered conservative, since it was derived using the replacement method for valuing coproducts, and it does not include energy credits for plants that sell carbon dioxide. Corn ethanol is energy efficient, as indicated by an energy ratio of 1.24, that is, for every Btu dedicated to producing ethanol, there is a 24-percent energy gain. Moreover, producing ethanol from domestic corn stocks achieves a net gain in a more desirable form of energy. Ethanol production utilizes abundant domestic energy supplies of coal and natural gas to convert corn into a premium liquid fuel that can replace petroleum imports by a factor of 7 to 1."

That "7 to 1" is 7 gallons of Ethanol are needed to replace 1 gallons of gasoline! Here is how it is figured: about 58,942 BTUs must be supplied from external energy sources for each gallon of Ethanol produced. To be self-sufficient Ethanol must return that energy, leaving only 17,058 BTU/gal available as excess energy. Or, dividing 120,000 by 17,058 shows that it will take 7.0348 gallons of Ethanol to replace each gallon of gasoline. So, instead of 30 billion gallons of Ethanol replacing 19 billion gallons of gasoline, only 4.2645 billion gallons of gasoline are replaced, and it would take our ENTIRE 2005 Corn crop to do it!

USA gasoline consumption facts: 384.2 million gal/day, or 140 billion gallons per year!!!

It will take 985 billion gallons of Ethanol to replace 140 billion gallons, so we'll need to harvest 2,704,468,826 acres of Corn that have a yield of 135.9 bushels/acre.

We need to know that 1 square kilometer equals 0.3861 sq mi, which also equals 247.104 acres.

From the CIA Fact Sheet for the USA:
Total land area: 9,161,923 sq km or 2,263,947,821 acres.
Total land suitable for agriculture: 18.01% or 407,510,608 acres

We have a dilemma. The needed acreage, 2,704,468,826, is 440,521,005 acres more than the TOTAL land area of the USA, 2,263,947,821 acres! To make an impossible situation even worse, the additional acreage we need is 33 million more acres than the total acreage in the USA which is suitable for for agriculture!

Therefore, Ethanol is NOT a viable replacement for Gasoline, even the 60% that is imported. Ethanol is already being used as an additive to prevent pinging, and it is being sold at the pump as an "E-10" fuel, which is 10% Ethanol and 90% gasoline. There are even a few "E-85" stations dispensing a fuel that is 85% Ethanol and 15% gasoline, mostly for a limited number of State vehicles. Replacing gasoline with "E-85" fuel nation wide is impossible. To replace 10% of the gasoline we use with Ethanol would require 270,446,882 acres of land, or 66% of ALL the agricultural land available in the USA.

And, IF Ethanol could replace gasoline as our energy source, why do the Ethanol plants need government subsidies?

Most of the arable land in the USA has only a 6 month growing season. Corn is usually planted in April or May, and harvested in September or October. During the remaining 6 months of the year Corn fields produce no energy. We are also faced with economic disaster if, due to drought or disease, Corn production falls below 135 bu/acre.

We need an energy source that can supply 24/7/365. Corn isn't it.

Just quoting how many gallons of Ethanol, or Soy bean oil, can be produced per acre doesn't mean the energy in that Ethanol or Oil is net energy. It takes energy to raise Corn and Soybeans.

It also takes energy to pump oil out of the ground. One metric that has been used to gauge how much oil remains to be recovered is based on the number of barrels of oil produced per foot of oil well drilled. Back in the Oklahoma oil rush days it was about 4,500 barrels of oil produced for each foot drilled. As time passed the number of barrels of oil produced per foot drilled diminished. It is estimated that within a few years the line on that graph will cross zero. Put another way, in the 1930s one barrel of oil invested in oil drilling produced about 100 barrels of additional oil. By the 1970s that had dropped to 25 barrels. Within a few years a barrel of oil invested in oil production will produce only one barrel of oil. That's the zero point. When that point is reached it will be economically impossible to continue to drill for oil, REGARDLESS of how much oil remains unproduced or where ever it is located.

I am only 70. My dad lived to 93. If I live as long as my dad did I will live to see the total exhaustion of economically recoverable oil. Energy companies are now using natural gas because of the increasing scarcity of oil.

**woodsmoke** · Apr 12, 2012, 08:36 PM

Sooo you are saying that we should maybe consider using kumquats? ;0

woodsmoke

pps, it is always worthwhile to remind people who are drinking koolaid and awake in a new world each day that some ideas may sound good but no matter how much earnestness is expended it is still a bad idea!

thanks GG.

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