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    #16
    Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

    Originally posted by Goeroeboeroe
    ....
    Since I'm no climate scientist, I have no reason not to believe the IPCC. But I really, really, really hope they are wrong. I would even be very, very glad if it turned out to be a conspiracy. Better a conspiracy then millions of people not having water etc.
    ......
    And I've read too about the internal mails of the IPCC. But the investigations showed it was more stupid behavior and mistakes than a conspiracy.
    You say you've "read about" the CRU emails. Rather than making up your mind on second hand opinion why don't you investigate the source?

    Kate has a very nice ability for such things. The FOIA.ZIP_2009 files contain 1,072 emails in chronological order using the integer equivalent of the Linux time stamp (the emails were on Linux servers). You can open Kate and using its FIle-->Open dialog navigate to the subdirectory where the unzipped files are. Select ALL 1,072 emails. They will appear in the side panel. You can click on one and read its contents in the right panel. BUT, if you open a search bar and enter a phrase, like "hide", or "trick", or "destroy", or "conceal" and then do the search a panel will open beneath the text panel listing all of the emails that phrase appears in by showing the name of the email, the line the phrase is on, the the words surrounding the phrase. If you click on a line it will open up in the text panel and you can read the email.

    Another thing about the emails is that often the CRU folks would top post over a received email, repeatedly. By reading a particular email from the bottom up one can follow the flow of the discussion without losing that all important "context", which is what the CRU folks are always claiming that "deniers" do.

    IF you don't want to use Kate then you can use the Konsole and issue a command:
    Code:
    grep -B3 -A4 hide /home/jerry/Documents/FOIA/FOIA/mail/*
    which, in this example, searches for occurrences of the word "hide", using your own paths, of course.

    Doing that you can make an informed opinion as to the veracity of the work being done by the CRU.

    ....
    Now again there are mails leaked. Just days before the next climate conference. Because it's just days before that conference gives me the feeling the leaker has some kind of (hidden) agenda. Why just days before the conference, so there's no time to investigate it thoroughly?
    ....
    So I think there's a climate change. And I think it's caused (mainly) by human behavior.
    ....
    Stupid behavior? To say the least!! But, it is their veracity, not their stupidity, that is being questioned. Mistakes? That would be hard to believe after you've read the HARRY_README.txt file, or the *.DOC files that contain the contracts that promise "deliverables" to prove AGW on milestone dates for specific sums of money. It's hard to toss 30 years of temperature data by "mistake" and then create synthetic (their words, not mine) data out of thin air, in order to support the hockey stick graph. HARRY shows how they did that. It's a VERY detailed look into how they manipulated, fabricated and many times falsified the data. If there is a dictionary example of a smoking gun HARRY is it.

    As far as the timing goes, imagine that you are working at the CRU, as a scientist or knowledgeable technical person. The leaker specifically asked "HARRY" to read the document by that name. The document, which is a log of actions taken by an individual over several years, keeping track of how he processed the data to make it presentable for publishing, even though it wasn't published with the papers. You are privy to information about misdeeds by co-workers when do you think it would be a good time to make those mis-deeds public? (IF you read nothing else read HARRY.) Thinking the best for them, would you wait and give them time to clarify their behavior, or correct apparent unethical actions? Of course. But, what if a day was approaching on which the results of that cooked, trimmed or fictional data would be used to publicly bolster an hypothesis about which internal documents reveal that the manipulated data does not support and that the presenters themselves do not believe, as the emails reveal? Would you release those damning documents before that day arrived? Of course.


    As someone who has done anti-cancer research, wrote a thesis and defended it, and in the process was taught about the sanctity of the data and how it relates to the Null Hypothesis, it is offensive to me that a "scientist" could claim to be able to deliver data that would "prove" an hypothesis, and do it for cash, and, as those 2009 emails (I haven't looked through the 2011 emails yet) prove, and for Socialist political purposes, as the email between the GreenPeace activist and Phil Jones established. It is a simple fact, long known, that a million experiments cannot prove an hypothesis, but it takes only one to disprove it.

    An aside: A few days after the 2009 leak, and just hours after I had searched the emails and confirmed that which I have subsequently wrote about, Al Gore was interviewed on CNN about the emails. He stated that he had looked at the emails and that they were ten years old and not relevant anymore. Here is the header from the most recent 2009 email:
    From: "Thorne, Peter (Climate Research)" <peter.thorne@metoffice.gov.uk>
    To: "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
    Subject: Letter draft
    Date: Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:17:44 -0000
    which is dated just about two weeks before Gore made his claim on CNN. So, either he did NOT read the emails and made a lot of assumption, took the word of someone in the AGW camp, or he was lying. Seeing that he has made MILLIONS from the AGW Carbon Credits scam I am skeptical, to say the least. He was the one who used the term "denier" to equate those who did not believe the skewed evidence with those who denied that the Holocaust occurred, a theme which AGW proponents picked up on in an attempt to stifle debate and opposition. As far as I am concerned, when ever the leading proponents of a position uses emotion laden labels to make personal attacks on opponents, THAT is prima facia proof that their data doesn't support their claim.

    As you watch that video you will note that the interviewer "collaborates" Gore by saying that "some of the emails are not 10 years old, some were from last year". "Last year" (a year ago from early December 2009) would put the "most recent" emails sometime in 2008. I know by counting that at least 132 emails are during 2009, so either the interviewers didn't do their homework or .... You decide.

    As far as your Left/Right issues, I skewer sacred cows on either side, as my non-Linux posts will verify. My own politics is a little Left of center -- a fiscal conservative with a social conscience who dislikes politicians of any strip whose actions seem focused on themselves and their personal wealth.

    In America, so far, and on this forum, I have a right to express my views on any topic. Everyone else, of course, has a right not to read them. Many do not. Such is life. But, until the Constitution is changed or abolished, or the rules of this form forbid it, no one has a right to demand that anyone else be denied their rights to express themselves. And, in NONE of the more than 4,000 posts I have made on this forum, I have NEVER demand that someone not speak their view, or that they "shut up". Nor have I ever called anyone a name, or made personally derogatory comments to anyone. But, I admit to being a Socially Conservative Linux Fanboi!
    "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
    – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

    Comment


      #17
      Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

      That's a long story. Thanks for the time to write it.
      First: of course you can say whatever you want. My first reaction on this thread was on something Woodsmoke wrote, getting Lysenko etc. into a discussion about climate change (and linking Lysenko, in my opinion, to left people). I don't have the slightest problem with you starting this thread, though I disagree with your opinion on the subject.

      About all the other things you wrote.
      I'm absolutely no fan of Al Gore. I think Al Gore is a perfect example of somebody with a 'hidden' (hardly 'hidden') agenda on 'my' site. I absolutely don't like the simplified, populist, making-people-afraid way he made his movie. He has some functions on the board of some polluting companies. Talking about hypocrite... But having somebody like Al Gore on 'my' site doesn't make me the same kind of hypocrite. At least, that's what I hope. You'll find that kind of people on both sides, I'm afraid.

      You ask why I didn't read the mails myself. That's pretty simple: I just don't have the time to do that. I try to be as good informed as I can. And believe me, I read enough about it from skeptics too. To understand this climate thing I should have to learn a lot of things I hardly know anything about, like statistics.
      Apart from the climate there are more subjects I'm interested in and have an opinion about. Like nuclear energy. But there goes the same: I'm not a nuclear scientist. So I have to figure out who I believe. To really, really make op my mind I should do a nuclear course. I simply don't have the time to do that. And this is only climate and nuclear plants. There are dozens of subjects I (and I think everybody) only can choose which experts they believe.

      I'm not sure myself if there's a climate change. I mean: I don't have the knowledge to really make op my true own opinion. It's simply 'who do I trust more'. Here in The Netherlands I have more trust in the scientists that say there is and people play a major role in the change. I write 'scientists', not 'politicians' or 'activists'. Because politicians almost always have hidden agendas, activists often do. The investigation for errors in the data about Holland was pretty public. It were scientists doing it. That made it hard to have hidden agendas. That's why I trust that investigation.
      But again: I simply don't have the time (and the necessary knowledge) to make such an investigation on my own.
      I believe without further evidence there are people in the IPCC (or other organizations like that) that do things they shouldn't do. Simply because you have that kind of people everywhere. But that doesn't mean the whole organization is fraudulent.

      Since you mentioned it specifically, I searched for the HARRY_README.txt. It perfectly illustrates the problem for me:
      1) It's pretty long. Take a lot of time to read it. But if this was the only file, that would be possible.
      2) Half of more of the text in it I really don't understand. If I don't understand what I'm reading, I can't make up an opinion. So I still have to believe what experts say.
      And besides that: if I read all the mails, I should also be sure that the mails are complete. That nobody falsified something. What would take even more time.

      After the first leakage of mails it was pretty clear for me, the people at IPCC etc. should have better procedures, better peer reviews, be more open, etc. But that doesn't mean their message is wrong.

      That's the problem, I think, with a society that's getting more and more complex. More and more you are forced to form an opinion based on what experts (or so-called experts) say.

      So I'm sorry, dear GreyGeek, but I don't change my opinion. If, for example, some scientist here working on the KNMI (the national Dutch climate/weather institute) should say climate change doesn't exist, or human behavior has no role in it, that probably would start some doubt. But KNMI believes in climate change and the role of humans in it, I'm afraid. And since I really don't see what's the benefit for them to lie about it, I don't have a reason not to believe them. They don't get extra money or something like that because of the climate change.

      Didn't know the word 'veracity'. Now I know it.
      Yes, in Holland the veracity of the IPCC etc. was also in doubt after the first leakage. But that was exactly what was investigated and except some stupid errors nothing was found. And the investigators criticized for not doing enough (public) peer reviews and that kind of things.

      I understand why the mails were published only days before the climate conference. If you want to have the most impact, that's the right thing to do. But that's also why I say the publisher(s) have a hidden agenda: they want to influence the conference. They have all the right to do that, but it shows they are not only after the truth, but also after having influence. Again: that's their good right, but at the same time it makes them less reliable as being independent whistle-blowers.

      Comment


        #18
        Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

        You can download the HARRY_README.TXT from here. Enjoy. It's a read that you can't put down.
        "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
        – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

        Comment


          #19
          Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

          Thanks for pointing me to that file, but I did find it already.
          But like I wrote: I can't read it, simply because half of it I don't understand.
          And even if I understood that text, I don't have the time, because I should not only read that file, but thousands of files, mails, etc.
          But even without reading it: I'm sure there is some manipulating or even plain swindle. In this file, or in some other data IPCC etc. produces/uses. Simply because that happens everywhere. Everywhere there are people manipulating. Maybe for money, maybe to get famous.
          This week in Holland alone three professors were unmasked. One of them completely made up data for 40 (!) studies over a lot of years. He was an international famous professor with lots of prices. Why? Heaven knows. Not for the money, in his case.

          So on beforehand I believe this happens at IPCC too. And at Greenpeace (the false information they deliberately gave on the sinking of an oil platform a few years ago). Etc.
          Problem is I can't judge how important this is on the whole picture, because I don't have the knowledge. I'm not a statistician, no climate scientist, no etc. If there is manipulation/fraud in ten files/mails on a total of 100.000, I don't think that has a lot of influence on the final conclusions.
          So I have to depend on people who can judge it. And if they say there were mistakes and some procedures should change, more openness, etc, but there was no real fraud, then I have to trust them. They do have the knowledge to judge it, I don't.
          Here in Holland a lot of people didn't believe IPCC, because it really looked like they cheated. But if some famous scientists say, after a very deep investigation in all openness, that's not the case, the only thing I can do is believe them.
          The most famous mistake here was Holland being flooded almost completely. If that had been deliberately fraud, the IPCC surely would have made up something else, because right after publication of their report it was clear this was utterly nonsense.

          The only reason I reacted in this thread was because, in my opinion, the suggestion was made everybody believing in climate change was a leftist, trying to destroy the economy and using tactics like Lysenko.
          And that's not true. That's to say: I'm left. But I don't have any interest in destroying the economy of the world or the US. And I'm afraid I couldn't, if I tried
          I'm not that powerful.

          Comment


            #20
            Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

            @Goeboeroeboe & GG

            I posted a link in the other GW thread to an aricle on Ars Technica.

            Here it is.
            The unjust distribution of goods persists, creating a situation of social sin that cries out to Heaven and limits the possibilities of a fuller life for so many of our brothers. -- Archbishop Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires (now Pope Francis)

            Comment


              #21
              Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

              Thanks for the link. I read about it in the newspaper, but this article goes a bit deeper. Luckily not too deep, so I can understand it.
              Let's hope they are right.
              This kind of criticism on the predictions of IPCC etc. is much more impressive for me, because it's not based on distrust, but on arguments.
              If things are going like they should be, you should get some kind of discussion among scientists about this study, based on arguments.

              Comment


                #22
                Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

                Originally posted by Goeroeboeroe
                Thanks for pointing me to that file, but I did find it already.
                But like I wrote: I can't read it, simply because half of it I don't understand.
                And even if I understood that text, I don't have the time, because I should not only read that file, but thousands of files, mails, etc.
                ......
                Here is just one of many examples. This one describes the hopeless state of the database they use to support the AGW theory:
                Code:
                Re-planned the program layout. Not a major exercise, just putting different loops in to speed up and
                simplify operations. It now runs as follows (note this is simplified!!):
                
                1. User chooses update databases or update datasets. Dates, parameters, etc.
                
                2. Update Databases
                2.1 Convert any MCDW bulletins to CRU format; merge into existing databases
                2.2 Convert any CLIMAT bulletins to CRU format; merge into databases from 2.1
                2.3 Convert any BOM bulletins to CRU format; merge into databases from 2.2
                
                3. Update datasets
                3.1 Convert databases to anomalies
                3.2 Grid primary parameters
                3.3 Generate synthetic secondary parameters
                3.4 Grid secondary parameters
                3.5 Convert gridded anomalies to actuals
                3.6 Produce final datasets
                
                1876 lines including subrotuines and notes. Ten Fortran and four IDL programs (plus indirect ones). All
                Fortran programs are mine, now. Top-level listing:
                
                drwx------ 10 f098 cru  4096 Feb 19 20:55 db
                drwx------ 3 f098 cru  4096 Feb 28 17:01 reference
                drwx------ 3 f098 cru  4096 Mar 1 15:41 runs
                drwx------ 4 f098 cru  4096 Feb 23 12:15 gridded_finals
                drwx------ 4 f098 cru  4096 Feb 27 17:56 results
                drwx------ 5 f098 cru  4096 Mar 1 15:40 logs
                drwx------ 6 f098 cru  4096 Dec 18 11:00 updates
                drwx------ 8 f098 cru  4096 Feb 28 16:15 interim_data
                -rw------- 1 f098 cru   11 Feb 27 17:48 newdata.latest.date
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 132425 Mar 1 14:41 update
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 16465 Mar 1 14:41 dtr2cldauto
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 17990 Mar 1 14:55 tmnx2dtrauto
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 19427 Mar 1 15:43 glo2absauto
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 20929 Mar 1 14:42 movenormsuato
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 23350 Mar 1 15:42 anomauto
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 29076 Mar 1 14:50 climat2cruauto
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 29481 Mar 1 14:50 bom2cruauto
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 29867 Mar 1 14:49 mcdw2cruauto
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 323870 Mar 1 15:52 makegridsauto
                -rwxr-xr-x 1 f098 cru 89515 Mar 1 16:10 newmergedbauto
                
                So, to station counts. These will have to mirror section 3 above. Coverage of secondary parameters is
                particularly difficult - what is the best approach? To include synthetic coverage, when it's only at
                2.5-degree?
                
                No. I'm going to back my previous decision - all station count files reflect actualy obs for that
                parameter only. So for secondaries, you get actual obs of that parameter (ie naff all for FRS). You
                get the info about synthetics that enables you to use the relevant primary counts if you want to. Of
                course, I'm going to have to provide a combined TMP and DTR station count to satisfy VAP & FRS users.
                The problem is that the synthetics are incorporated at 2.5-degrees, NO IDEA why, so saying they affect
                particular 0.5-degree cells is harder than it should be. So we'll just gloss over that entirely ;0)
                
                ARGH. Just went back to check on synthetic production. Apparently - I have no memory of this at all -
                we're not doing observed rain days! It's all synthetic from 1990 onwards. So I'm going to need
                conditionals in the update program to handle that. And separate gridding before 1989. And what TF
                happens to station counts?
                
                OH #&%$ THIS. It's Sunday evening, I've worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done I'm
                hitting yet another problem that's based on the hopeless state of our databases. There is no uniform
                data integrity, it's just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they're found.
                except the cuss words are not replaced with high order ascii text.

                Code:
                I am seriously close to giving up, again. The history of this is so complex that I can't get far enough
                into it before by head hurts and I have to stop. Each parameter has a tortuous history of manual and
                semi-automated interventions that I simply cannot just go back to early versions and run the update prog.
                I could be throwing away all kinds of corrections - to lat/lons, to WMOs (yes!), and more.
                
                So what the hell can I do about all these duplicate stations? Well, how about fixdupes.for? That would
                be perfect - except that I never finished it, I was diverted off to fight some other fire. Aarrgghhh.
                
                I - need - a - database - cleaner.
                
                What about the ones I used for the CRUTEM3 work with Phil Brohan? Can't find the bugger!! Looked everywhere,
                [color=red]Matlab scripts aplenty but not the one that produced the plots I used in my CRU presentation in 2005.[/color] Oh,
                F*** IT. Sorry. I will have to WRITE a program to find potential duplicates. It can show me pairs of headers,
                and correlations between the data, and I can say 'yay' or 'nay'. There is the finddupes.for program, though
                I think the comment for *this* program sums it up nicely:
                
                 '   program postprocdupes2
                  c Further post-processing of the duplicates file - just to show how crap the
                  c program that produced it was! Well - not so much that but that once it was
                  c running, it took 2 days to finish so I couldn't really reset it to improve
                  c things. Anyway, *this* version does the following useful stuff:
                  c (1) Removes and squirrels away all segments where dates don't match;
                  c (2) Marks segments >5 where dates don't match;
                  c (3) Groups segments from the same pair of stations;
                  c (4) Sorts based on total segment length for each station pair'
                
                You see how messy it gets when you actually examine the problem?
                and this one shows how undocumented their data is:
                Code:
                So.. we don't have the coefficients files (just .eps plots of something). But
                what are all those monthly files? DON'T KNOW, UNDOCUMENTED. Wherever I look,
                there are data files, no info about what they are other than their names. And
                that's useless.. take the above example, the filenames in the _mon and _ann
                directories are identical, but the contents are not. And the only difference
                is that one directory is apparently 'monthly' and the other 'annual' - yet
                both contain monthly files.
                or, this section of the text, which illustrates their process of a theory looking for, or creating, supporting data, like using arbitrary values to scale the data (cooking), "weeding" (triming, cherry picking)etc:
                Code:
                AGREED APPROACH for cloud (5 Oct 06).
                
                For 1901 to 1995 - stay with published data. No clear way to replicate
                process as undocumented.
                
                For 1996 to 2002:
                 1. convert sun database to pseudo-cloud using the f77 programs;
                 2. anomalise wrt 96-00 with anomdtb.f;
                 3. grid using quick_interp_tdm.pro (which will use 6190 norms);
                 4. calculate (mean9600 - mean6190) for monthly grids, using the
                  published cru_ts_2.0 cloud data;
                 5. add to gridded data from step 3.
                
                This should approximate the correction needed.
                
                On we go.. firstly, examined the spc database.. seems to be in % x10.
                Looked at published data.. cloud is in % x10, too.
                First problem: there is no program to convert sun percentage to
                cloud percentage. I can do sun percentage to cloud oktas or sun hours
                to cloud percentage! So what the hell did Tim do?!! As I keep asking.
                
                Examined the program that converts sun % to cloud oktas. It is
                complicated! Have inserted a line to multiple the result by 12.5 (the
                result is in oktas*10 and ranges from 0 to 80, so the new result will
                range from 0 to 1000).
                
                Next problem - which database to use? The one with the normals included
                is not appropriate (the conversion progs do not look for that line so
                obviously are not intended to be used on +norm databases). The non
                normals databases are either Jan 03 (in the '_ateam' directory) or
                Dec 03 (in the regular database directory). The newer database is
                smaller! So [color=red]more weeding[/color] than planting in 2003. Unfortunately both
                databases contain the 6190 normals line, just unpopulated. So I will
                go with the 'spc.0312221624.dtb' database, and modify the already-
                modified conversion program to process the 6190 line.
                
                Then - comparing the two candidate spc databases:
                
                spc.0312221624.dtb
                spc.94-00.0312221624.dtb
                
                I find that they are broadly similar, except the normals lines (which
                both start with '6190') are very different. I was expecting that maybe
                the latter contained 94-00 normals, what I wasn't expecting was that
                thet are in % x10 not %!  [color=red] Unbelievable - even here the conventions have
                not been followed. It's botch after botch after botch.[/color]
                The AGW folks like to claim that their critics do not understand statistics (even though M&M are professionals in statistical analysis), but read what the writer of the HARRY_README.TXT says:
                So, once again I don't understand statistics. Quel surprise, given that I haven't had any
                training in stats in my entire life, unless you count A-level maths.
                even though he is one of the scientists presenting the CRU data in 2005 But, that doesn't seem to matter, since Phil Jones asks him to:
                Next, Phil requested some statistical plots of percentage change in annual totals, and long-term trends.
                It seems not only does he not have statistical training, he has other deficiencies as well, but he knows enough to ask specific questions for what he has been told to do, and this is one of the guys presenting the papers!:
                I have to admit, I still don't understand secondary parameter generation. I've read the papers, and the
                miniscule amount of 'Read Me' documentation, and it just doesn't make sense. In particular, why use 2.5
                degree grids of the primaries instead of 0.5? Why deliberately lose spatial resolution, only to have to
                reinterpolate later?
                ...
                Oh, GOD. What is going on? Are we data sparse and just looking at the climatology? How can a synthetic
                dataset derived from tmp and dtr produce the same statistics as an 'real' dataset derived from observations?
                Quality controls on published vapor data?:
                Anyway now I need to use whatever VAP station data we have. And here I'm a little flaky (again),
                the vap database hasn't been updated, is it going to be? Asked Dave L and he supplied summaries
                he'd produced of CLIMAT bulletins from 2000-2006. Slightly odd format but very useful all the
                same.

                And now, a brief interlude. As we've reached the stage of thinking about secondary variables, I
                wondered about the CLIMAT updates, as one of the outstanding work items is to write routines to
                convert CLIMAT and MCDW bulletins to CRU format (so that mergedb.for can read them). So I look at
                a CLIMAT bulletin, and what's the first thing I notice? It's that there is absolutely no station
                identification information apart from the WMO code. None. No lat/lon, no name, no country. Which
                means that all the bells and whistles I built into mergedb, (though they were needed for the db
                merging of course) are surplus to requirements. The data must simply be added to whichever station
                has the same number at the start, and there's no way to check it's right.
                The one thing that amazed me most about HARRY was that it describes what CRU folks were doing right up to 2009 to generate data that supported their theory, yet they've been claiming for years now that AGW is "settled" science.


                "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
                – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

                Comment


                  #23
                  Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

                  Ah, this was a text I could - more or less - understand, thanks.
                  But my problem stays the same. I really appreciate the trouble you take to show me the way, but I still haven't enough knowledge to make an opinion myself.
                  I have no problem at all to believe (some of) the data are a mess, or there's is (more or less) manipulating. It's almost impossible that doesn't happen in such an organization, where political powers etc. also play their role.
                  But to form a real own opinion I should read EVERY leaked mail completely. And before I could do that, I should have to go to university to study statistics, climatology and heaven knows what more.

                  The text you show me surely makes not a solid impression, to say the least. But how do I know if (some of) the problems haven't been solved later?
                  That's why I, in my opinion, have to follow the experts that looked at IPCC, CRU, etc. And from them I understood there was no real fraud.

                  In the mean time I found back the biggest mistake about Holland. My country would be flooded for the biggest part, because it suddenly had sunk a few meters in the report of the IPCC about climate change. (There were a few more errors, but they were minor.)
                  The first reaction from a lot of people was: fraud and manipulation. But again: if you really want to mislead people, you do that in a more subtle way. I mean: dropping a whole country a few meters, of course that's noticed. That's also what the investigation found: errors, no fraud.

                  I have no problem believing there are conspiracies. Being a true left person, of course I believe there are
                  But I do have problems believing in fraud or a conspiracy, in which EVERY climatologist etc. in The Netherlands is involved, without one exception. If even only one expert was saying "it's fraud", or something like that, that should give me reason to start doubting.
                  The study published yesterday or today showing maybe the climate change is less then IPCC etc. expects (the link bsniadajewski gave), I've no problems to believe that study. That's to say: a scientific study of course should always be repeated etc. to exclude fraud, errors, etc. But that study just talks about another model, not about a big conspiracy or fraud.

                  Some people seem to think it's a big conspiracy/fraud to destroy the economy of the western world. I don't think beforehand it's impossible some people should like to do that. I don't think the late Bin Laden would have had any problems with that, to name just one person/organization.
                  I think I know a bit how my country is organized. The people at the KNMI, our national climate/weather institute, what reason should they have to falsify data? They don't get more money if there's a climate change, they don't wanna destroy western economy. I mean: if there's a real conspiracy, it's impossible nobody of the KNMI would have said anything about that.

                  So I'm afraid I stick to my opinion: it's very well possible, and even likely, there are (lots of) errors, and maybe even some people at the IPCC etc. really fraudulent for whatever reason, but that doesn't proof the final conclusion of IPCC etc. is wrong. If I should believe even the investigators of the leaked mails etc. were part of a fraud/conspiracy, I would probably become very violent myself against KNMI etc. But I can't believe that.

                  Edit: some typos. Writing in Dutch is really far easier

                  Comment


                    #24
                    Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

                    Originally posted by Goeroeboeroe
                    ....
                    But how do I know if (some of) the problems haven't been solved later?
                    That's why I, in my opinion, have to follow the experts that looked at IPCC, CRU, etc. And from them I understood there was no real fraud.
                    ....
                    You don't "solve" a problems involving falsification, cooking and trimming of data, hijacking peer review panels of climate journals and using cronyism to review their own papers and ganging up on papers with opposing viewpoints, impugning the character of world renown climatologists with 30+ years of experience, etc., by expecting those doing the evil deeds to reverse themselves and admit that they cooked the books. So, instead of examining the evidence of corruption plainly visible in the emails, you are going to rely instead on an 'Appeal to Authority", the very "authority" publishing the fake research, to form your opinion? Good luck with that.
                    "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
                    – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

                    Comment


                      #25
                      Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

                      Hi GW.

                      You have done a marvellous job of posting the REAL information.

                      However, if I might "cut to the chase".

                      The guy who was THE guy, that promoted, promulgated, wrote about, provided data for......the EPIcenter of AGW.

                      Admits.....

                      There has not been "global warming" since 1995. So....how many years does it take to "prove" that AGW exists or does not exist.

                      THE MAN.....at the center of it all....say....ummm....

                      sorry, exqueeuze moi, but.....um ....no global warming and ..."I....'lost'....ALL of the data for AGW".

                      Notice....the word ....ALL...... of the data for AGW is ....GONE....pfffft.....outta here.....bye bye....

                      lost the physical hard drive......

                      even though I am going to change the economy for the WHOLE WORLD....I don't know what a cdrw or a usb drive is...

                      sorry about that.... :P

                      ASTONISHMENT that THE GUY....says.....sorry about that.

                      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...organised.html

                      woodsmoke

                      Comment


                        #26
                        Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

                        Originally posted by GreyGeek
                        You don't "solve" a problems involving falsification, cooking and trimming of data, hijacking peer review panels of climate journals and using cronyism to review their own papers and ganging up on papers with opposing viewpoints, impugning the character of world renown climatologists with 30+ years of experience, etc., by expecting those doing the evil deeds to reverse themselves and admit that they cooked the books. So, instead of examining the evidence of corruption plainly visible in the emails, you are going to rely instead on an 'Appeal to Authority", the very "authority" publishing the fake research, to form your opinion? Good luck with that.
                        You are partly right and partly wrong about me.
                        You are right that I don't really investigate this matter very deep myself. I've given the reason lots of times: to read thousands of mails takes simply too much time. And even if I did that I wouldn't have the knowledge to understand what I'm reading. And if I don't read everything myself, there's still the possibility that I'm being manipulated.
                        If I had to investigate myself everything that's important to truly maken up my own mind, how many lifes did I need? It's not only climate change. It's nuclear energy, genetic manipulation, antibiotics in animal foods, wars on lots of places, fair trade, etc. etc. All very, very important things that all need very specific knowledge I don't have. So indeed: I rely on experts on a lot of subjects. On a very few subjects I myself have enough knowledge (or think so) and time to make up my own mind, without (much) help from experts.
                        But I think everybody does this, because nobody has enough time or knowledge to be an expert on everything. I can give my own opinion based on my own experience on a campfire and discuss that, but I can't when it's about a nuclear plant. In the latter case I HAVE to rely on experts. I can only try to figure out which experts I trust more or less.

                        The part you're wrong: of course I'm not relying on what you call "the very 'authority' publishing the fake research". As far as I know IPCC etc. were investigated by other people, not by the people that published the reports etc.
                        I've followed it more deeply in The Netherlands. There were three investigations here about the part that had to do with Holland. All three were done by independent scientists etc, not in any way involved with IPCC etc. They had the time and the knowledge to judge. That were the people I let influence my opinion, not the IPCC itself. If that people, who were capable to judge what happened, say there was no fraud etc, then I believe that.
                        What's your suggestion? Should I first study statistics, climatology, etc, and then take the time to read thousand of mails? And do that too for all other important things I named before, like nuclear energy?

                        It's just impossible to do that. Maybe you have the time and the knowledge to understand (all or most) papers about climate change. But you too can't possibly have the time and the knowledge to study EVERY important thing happening in the world. On other subjects you too have to rely on information other people give you.

                        More exactly: I'm really afraid climate change is happening, and it's at least partly caused by human behavior. If this turns out to be wrong, I'll change my mind.
                        What's more important for me than being a believer or non-believer: I don't force anybody to do anything against climate change. I have an opinion just for me. I try to use as less energy as possible, have no car, etc. But I've absolutely no problem with people having a car. Simply because I don't believe you can change that kind of things with power or force. I think a better approach is like Germany has at the moment (and The Netherlands used to have till a few years ago). If you're afraid climate change is happening and you don't want nuclear energy, start an industry making windmills, solar cells, etc. That's good against climate change, good for environment, people can still use energy, it's good for the economy, etc. Everybody happy.

                        Germany has a pretty big windmill industry etc. at the moment, and it's growing really fast. It doesn't matter if you believe in climate change or not: that industry is good for everybody. No need to blame 'the other side': an industry making windmills is good for both sides. If you don't believe it's helping against climate change, you can enjoy it for making jobs and helping the economy.
                        I think it's better putting my time in that kind of things than in studying papers I can't really understand.
                        (I have nothing to do with windmills, it's just an example. And since this is about climate change I think windmills are an appropriate illustration.)

                        So actually, I think, there's no need to convince me, because I will never and did never force anybody to live to what I believe in.

                        If you (or other people with your opinions on climate change) should live in Amsterdam (where I live), we could argue whole day about climate change. We could also build windmills. I would built them because it's good against climate change, good for the environment, etc. You could build them because it's good for the economy, it brings jobs, or whatever reason. And we could still both keep our own belief about climate change.
                        That's exactly why I have so often problems with a lot of my 'comrades', to use an old fashioned word. Because a lot of left people not only try to force other people to live in a certain way, no, they even have to believe the left way is the only good way. That kind of 'comrades' would open a Gulag Archipel the day they get in power. (You have that kind of people on the far right too of course, but I don't have to meet that kind of people on the right side.)
                        I have political right friends because we look at the things that unite us. And we have nice arguments with a beer about other things. It doesn't matter too much what you believe, as long as you have enough things you both believe in. I think.

                        Of course: that changes when you have real power. Luckily I'm no minister or something like that, so nobody is interested in what I decide and nobody has to do what I want.
                        My decisions and beliefs don't have any influence on other people. Well, not more than I have by writing this kind of things. But they have absolutely one big favor: even if there's no climate change, I've used as less energy as possible etc. and saved a whole lot of money.

                        Comment


                          #27
                          Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

                          @woodsmoke:
                          I've read that article you linked too. It's pretty obvious at least some parts of data, procedures, etc. were quite a mess. And that's absolutely a shame in such matters.
                          But that's no big surprise, because I think that was what the investigations already made clear.
                          But that's still something else as a fraud, conspiracy, or something like that. You're absolutely right if you think this guy was the wrong person on the wrong place (I make up out of what you write you're no fan of him ). But he doesn't look to me like a real crook. Just chaotic (what's worse enough in his position). He looks pretty open to me about his mistakes and about his doubts.
                          But I guess what you believe colors, at least partially, what you read. You think it's all not true, I'm afraid it's true, so I read that article probably with more sympathy than you do.
                          But I agree fully with you it's unbelievable there are evidently no people that can simply organize on places that can influence the whole world economy.

                          Comment


                            #28
                            Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

                            Hi
                            I've known people that are like him for my whole teaching career.

                            They "spin" their theories and preach to the students and the students have to "pay lip service" to get a grade.

                            But this guy was then thrust upon the world stage and what else could he do if he was not to have shown his career to be nothing but the spinning of theories.

                            Then his "theories" started to have "influence".

                            No matter how sympathetic he may seem, his "theories" ultimately caused the Democratic controlled congress a few years ago to mandate an increase in the ratio of alcohol to gasoline in U.S. fuels, which changed the matrix of the types of corn being grown, as to whether it was fuel corn or food corn and that then caused food riots in multiple countries and deaths.

                            Suddenly the little man who spun theories was the ultimate cause of deaths half a world away.

                            When the food riots and deaths occurred under G.W.Bush(2008) the many, not all, of the lefties were screaming at the gates of the White House, but when it continues and INCREASES under Obama...not a word....

                            But at least we might excuse him, but then we have Al Gore, who KNOWINGLY did all that he did, KNOWING that his actions would cause grave consequences, and for him it was not theories, it was plain and simple profit and power.

                            And we have G.W. Bush buying monsterous tracts of land in South America to control access to the world's largest aquifer (water needed to produce ethanol fuel) and guess what....the newspapers which used to excoriate Bush when he was president are..now..curiously silent?

                            http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006...on.tomphillips

                            Science is no longer in an "ivory tower" and scientists are no longer people puffing in the air in front of students and their colleagues.

                            Their actions have real consequences..

                            Just as they did with Alfred Nobel, and Jonas Salk but those people did not willingly FAKE their work.

                            woodsmoke

                            Comment


                              #29
                              Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

                              I don't think we'll ever agree about everything, but you may be surprised to know I completely agree with you about Al Gore.
                              One of the most important things for me is people are open about their motives, or at least try to be. I may disagree with you and GreyGeek, but I can see you both really believe in what you write. Without earning money with it or trying to become famous or something like that. That's something I can appreciate.
                              (Hmmm, on a forum you can never be really sure. But I think you're not being paid by Shell )
                              All your efforts are not completely lost. All that reading about climate change etc. last days made me more critical again. I'm still afraid it's happening, but that newspaper article you linked too doesn't exactly strengthen my believe. The same goes for the harry.txt.
                              But if I believe in it or not doesn't matter too much for me. Even if I didn't believe in climate change etc., I wouldn't change my way of life. There are still plenty of other reasons not to use more energy as necessary. And if you live in Amsterdam, you have to be a true masochist if you want to transport yourself in a car.
                              Concerning using food for fuel, I think we more or less agree too. If 'we' take land away to be able to drive cars so people can't grow food, or food is becoming too expensive, that's really bad.

                              Comment


                                #30
                                Re: FOIA Whistleblower releases another batch!

                                Originally posted by Goeroeboeroe
                                But if I believe in it or not doesn't matter too much for me. Even if I didn't believe in climate change etc., I wouldn't change my way of life. There are still plenty of other reasons not to use more energy as necessary. And if you live in Amsterdam, you have to be a true masochist if you want to transport yourself in a car.
                                All of that is true, but unfortunately, individual action is less important there. The alternative energy sources are sometimes hard to push as a viable alternative due to price and demand for energy, especially when you're talking about the emerging countries, but there are examples that show how intelligent subsidizing can produce results. Norway's investment in wind turbine technology is a great example, they're close to producing wind energy on par with fossil fuels as far as investment/return are concerned.

                                Otoh, if investment in alternative sources is used as a political ploy or your regular scam (carbon credits and the like), you're setting yourself up for failure. The point being that investment in alternative energy and "saving the planet" by cutting carbon emissions are not complementary goals.
                                &quot;The only way Kubuntu could be more user friendly would be if it came with a virtual copy of Snowhog and dibl&quot;

                                Comment

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