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    "Top Kill" FAILED -- here is what is affected ...

    http://globalwarming.house.gov/spillcam

    In fact, it looks worse.

    Before, there appeared to be just two leaks. Now there are four, and the biggest appears bigger than the original leak. Over the last three hours I've watched them try several times to inject mud in an attempt to slow down or stop the flow of oil enough to allow them to inject cement into the well, but the flow hardly seems to slow down at all. Once the cloud of mud dissipates the flow looks unchanged.

    The Exxon Valdez disaster was caused by 10.8 million gallons of oil. According to wikipedia the Gulf leak SO FAR is now estimated to be 20 times the Valdez leak, or 220 million gallons (or 5.238 million barrels), and some estimate it to be at around 50,000 barrels/day +- 30K. But, more recent estimates put the rate at a more believable 95,000 barrels/day.

    Interestingly, "BP (formerly British Petroleum) is the operator and principal developer of the Macondo Prospect oil field, which was thought to hold as much as 50 million barrels (7.9×10^6 m3) of oil prior to the blowout, by BP's own estimate. " So, as much as 10% of the estimated capacity of the reservoir has escaped into the Gulf. At $78/bbl that reservoir is worth $4 Billion. If it isn't or can't be capped then it will take only 526 days to dump the entire reservoir into the Gulf.

    BP made $14 Billion profit in 2009. It may take ALL of that profit and more to clean up the Gulf. Otherwise, it will take Nature more than a century to do the job.

    BP says it will pay all "verified" costs, but it knows that in 2002 VP Chaney negotiated through Congress legislation which put a cap to its liability at only $75M in damages, which are currently estimated at well over 10 times that amount. A recent bill in Congress to revoke the cap and access BP $10B in fines to cover cleanup costs was killed by Republicans and BlueDog Democrats.

    Do you want to see what's ahead for the Gulf, its residents, and its fishing industries? Just look at the condition of Prince William Sound just 20 years after the spill.

    The spill remains the most costly maritime accident in the world. Volunteers rushed to Valdez to scrub otters and ducks with gentle soap, only to watch them die. Exxon papered the towns with money, hiring fishermen to wash oil off the beaches. The company soon declared the once-pristine area largely healed, even as its creatures continued to die.

    Exxon also sent waves of lawyers to fight the court awards from the spill, finally last year winning a U.S. Supreme Court decision allowing the company to pay about ten cents for each dollar of the original award to fishermen and others affected by the spill.

    And politicians wonder why the citizens are mad as **** at politicians of BOTH parties.

    Hopefully, this will encourage a greater focus and determination to bring Solar and other alternative forms of energy to market. We can't afford not to.

    EDIT: Nearly 24 hours and BP is trying another attempt at the "Top Kill" after the failure of their first attempt, except that now the camera has stopped showing the leak itself and now seems to randomly pan around the site and focus on various objects. Occasionally one can catch a glimpse in the background of material gushing from the leak with the same vigor as before. The number of people monitoring the web camera view has put a real load on the streaming video.

    EDIT: 5/29/10 - 18:40 CST
    Now that we know that "Top Kill" didn't, here is the list of fauna that is affected:
    Shorelines - Wetland - Brackish Water
    Lightning Whelk
    Blue Crab
    Stone Crab
    Fiddler Crab
    American Alligator

    Estuaries and Shallow Waters
    Green Sea Turtle
    Hawskbill Sea Turtle
    Leatherback Sea Turtle
    Loggerhead Sea Turtle
    Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtle
    Southern Flounder
    Eastern Brown Pelican
    Pinfish
    Pigfish
    Gafftopsail Catfish
    Hardhead Catfish
    Atlantic Cutlassfish
    Atlantic Croaker
    Open Water
    Striped Mullet
    American Eel
    Black Drum
    Red Drum
    Spotted Seatrout
    Tarpon
    Greater Amberjack
    Florida Pompano
    Common Snook
    Crevalle Jack
    Tripletail
    Cobia
    Special Structures - Reefs
    Eastern Oyster
    Red Snapper
    Vermilion Snapper
    Sheepshead
    Lane Snapper

    Flora also includes the photo plankton which feeds the zoo plankton, which feeds everything else.

    Fauna also includes the zoo plankton, which feeds the minnow fish and crustaceans, which feed the larger fish.

    The failure of "Top Kill" probably means the Total Kill of most life in the Gulf.
    "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
    – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

    #2
    Re: Six hours after "Top Kill" and it doesn't look good...

    If this is NOT going to stop in June, then Mexico will also suffer due to the death of many birds, fish and the lack of tourists visiting Cancun from August on.
    Multibooting: Kubuntu Noble 24.04
    Before: Jammy 22.04, Focal 20.04, Precise 12.04 Xenial 16.04 and Bionic 18.04
    Win XP, 7 & 10 sadly
    Using Linux since June, 2008

    Comment


      #3
      Re: Six hours after "Top Kill" and it doesn't look good...

      I'll say the GULF will already be doomed. They allowed BP to lie and lie until it is now too late. It just goes to show that with everything else done wrong by man that man will never be responsible for what was given.

      Comment


        #4
        Re: Six hours after "Top Kill" and it doesn't look good...

        I want to be optimistic, but twenty two years after the Valdez incident things there are not as rosy as the oil companies would have you believe. Also, as I pointed out, after the initial public outcry had passed and the event slipped from the minds of most people, the oil company lobbyists and lawyers set about reversing ALL of the legislation, fines, penalties, etc., that were awarded. They ended up paying less than ten cents on the dollar. Major parts of the flora and fauna have not returned to that location.

        When I read of GIANT oil plumes 1,300 ft beneath the Gulf that were 22 miles long, 6 miles wide and 3,300 feet deep I was shocked. That one is heading for the shores of Alabama, but it will probably be carried by the currents down the West coast of Florida, around the tip and up along the East coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and the other coastal states, by Long Island, out across the Atlantic near Greenland, over to Ireland and England and down those shores till it gets to the Equator, where it will turn West and return to the Americas. Those places are on the Continental shelves where most fish estuaries are. With what has been released already, (which could have been and continues to be as much as 50,000 Barrels/day, almost 2,000,000 Barrels have already been released into the Gulf, which is more than 40X the size of the Valdez incident.

        Add to that the fact that for a couple weeks BP was releasing highly toxic and carcinogenic oil dispersants into the oil (corexit or corexit or especially here) and we have an overwhelming ecological disaster. All because BP management wanted to increase profits by using defective blowout preventers and reducing the number of safety check values in the drill stem from three to one.

        So, IMO, even if they successfully kill the well and cement it up this week, there has been enough oil and chemicals released into the Gulf that it will take more than a CENTURY for the Gulf to recover to where it is today which, when you see the silt and sewage streaming into the Gulf from the Mississippi river, isn't all that great. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/fea...ill/index.html

        This image is especially heart-breaking.

        This video shows a time-lapse series of photos which gives one a sense of the size of the disaster. However, remember that since BP used dispersants much of the oil did not make it to the surface, which was the main purpose in using dispersants, so what you see on the surface is much less than the actual amount released.
        "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
        – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

        Comment


          #5
          Re: Six hours after "Top Kill" and it doesn't look good...

          Originally posted by GreyGeek
          I want to be optimistic, but twenty two years after the Valdez incident things there are not as rosy as the oil companies would have you believe. Also, as I pointed out, after the initial public outcry had passed and the event slipped from the minds of most people, the oil company lobbyists and lawyers set about reversing ALL of the legislation, fines, penalties, etc., that were awarded. They ended up paying less than ten cents on the dollar. Major parts of the flora and fauna have not returned to that location.
          Today, if you visit Prince William Sound, and you did not know about the Exxon Valdez spill, you would not know that it happened. But all you have to do is dig down a few inches 'with your hands' and you will find the oil. It's still there - more than twenty years later.
          Windows no longer obstructs my view.
          Using Kubuntu Linux since March 23, 2007.
          "It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data." - Sherlock Holmes

          Comment


            #6
            Re: Six hours after "Top Kill" and it doesn't look good...

            When I read of GIANT oil plumes 1,300 ft beneath the Gulf that were 22 miles long, 6 miles wide and 3,300 feet deep I was shocked. That one is heading for the shores of Alabama, but it will probably be carried by the currents down the West coast of Florida, around the tip and up along the East coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and the other coastal states, by Long Island, out across the Atlantic near Greenland, over to Ireland and England and down those shores till it gets to the Equator, where it will turn West and return to the Americas.
            How about a nice little hurricane to spread the wealth all over the gulf states and then the Caribbean if / when it passes Florida?

            This thing is about 52000 sq. Km.
            which means that the country I live in would be covered in oil.

            wonderful thought > > > >

            Outrages does not cover it. > > > > > > > > > > > > >
            HP Pavilion dv6 core i7 (Main)
            4 GB Ram
            Kubuntu 18.10

            Comment


              #7
              Re: Six hours after "Top Kill" and it doesn't look good...

              I agree GG. That image is disheartening.

              Comment


                #8
                Re: Six hours after "Top Kill" and it doesn't look good...

                I just watched an animation of the leak, through the 25th.

                Very informative. Very sad.
                "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
                – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Re: Six hours after "Top Kill" and it doesn't look good...

                  I mentioned that the dispersants cause the oil to break up into very small globs or particles and then float beneath the surface at various levels as it slowly falls to the bottom. Just how bad it was I had no way of knowing ... until now. I just saw an ABC GMA video with Sam Champion, who put on a hazmat diving suit and filmed the water 25 feet below the surface. It is bad.

                  http://blog.al.com/live/2010/05/vide...the_oildi.html

                  Any fish, dolphins, turtles or other creatures will become coated with that slime. The gills of fish will get coated with the slime and they will suffocate, even if the dispersant didn't cause microscopic droplets of oil to consume the oxygen in the water. Dolphins will breath in the fumes when they surface to breath, and they will be blinded when the slime gets into their eyes. They won't survive. Nothing will survive in the Gulf. Any creature that swims into the Gulf from the Atlantic Ocean will die in the Gulf. The bottom dwelling creatures and their ecology will be totally destroyed. A century may not be enough time to heal this. Maybe even two centuries isn't enough time.

                  It couldn't get any worse if some crazy country detonated a 50 Megaton warhead at the bore site.
                  "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
                  – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Re: Six hours after "Top Kill" and it doesn't look good...

                    Reminds me of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Peigneur

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Re: "Top Kill" FAILED -- here is what is affected ...

                      I found a graphic showing the flow of the Gulf stream from the Gulf of Mexico to the shores of England: http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/wp-...am-290x241.jpg Ireland, England, Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Spain, and into the Mediterranean!

                      Another shows how a branch could cycle back to the North shores of South America and Central America before re-entering the Gulf. The damage to the creatures in the Atlantic will be unimaginable!

                      As early as the third week of the leak the size of it was estimated to be twice the area of Florida.
                      http://lh3.ggpht.com/_KXlLr4Mnvpo/S9...10-Overlay.jpg
                      "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
                      – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Re: "Top Kill" FAILED -- here is what is affected ...

                        There are very few problems that can't be solved by the proper application of high explosives. I wonder why they have not considered that. In this case, it might require an ADM. (Atomic Demolition Munition). But I would bet with the proper expert application, they could close that hole.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Re: "Top Kill" FAILED -- here is what is affected ...

                          Some experts agree with you! Notice in that clip, made on May 27th, there is talk that the riser leak is the minor leak. That expert, and several others, believe the main leak is 5 miles away, coming from a fractured formation, and is the cause of the giant 23 mile by 6 mile by 3,000 ft blob which appeared northeast of the Deep Water Horizon location. They mention a video of the riser leak which I also saw, and was amazed by. The riser is 22" in diameter. An eel, about 3 ft long, swam into view, swam up to the spewing oil, stuck half it's body into the stream of oil gushing from the riser ... and wasn't moved an inch by the flow! When its body penetrated 2/3rd its length into the flow it encountered something which repelled it and it backed out and quickly swam away. BTW, that expert estimated the flow, from both locations, to be about 125,000 barrels per day. It is also interesting to know that on April 16th BP applied for permission to "temporarily" abandon Deep Water Horizon because of the troubles it was having sinking the well. They were at 18,000 feet and needed to go to 20,000 feet but couldn't get their. Apparently the formation is unstable. This could explain a bigger leak 5 miles away.

                          The Russians used nukes on five undersea wells. Four of them worked, but an attempt to close a runaway gas well failed. So, there success ration was 80%. The average yield of the devices they used was around 100 Kt. I don't know how small that a 100Kt device can be, but I suspect that with an implosion device we are still talking about something that is 12-18" in diameter. A bullet device could be smaller in diameter but several feet long. Let's say its 12" in diameter. If they seal it against the pressure it will be larger. At 23,000 ft (5,000 + 18,000) the pressure is nearly 10,000 PSI.

                          The logistics of getting a device down to 18,000 feet below the sea BED is the problem. The casing is 22" in diameter, 1" thick, but the oil stem is 6" in diameter and 1/2" thick. With concentric supports every so often it would be impossible to lower a 12" diameter, 100Kt device down the well. The relief well, which was started on May 2nd, was down to 10,000 below the sea bed on May 17th. At that level, where they curve the hole toward the Deep Water Horizon well, they narrow the bore to 18". So, the 100Kt device has to be less than 16" in diameter. A device that looked like a small torpedo was used to shut down another gas well. Video here.

                          The problem I have with using nukes is that if it fails we will have RADIOACTIVE oil polluting the Gulf. A 20% chance seems to high of a risk.

                          BUT, the relief wells aren't a guaranteed cure either. here is an article explaining that the wells may not even be completed completed in August! THey cite the Mexican oil leak in 150' of water and down 5,800' below the sea bed. Also, it seems the May 12th article on how far the "spud" wells have progress was overly optimistic. The first apparently was NOT at 10,000 feet below the sea bed as BP reported, but as of May 27th:
                          The company appears to be making progress. Spokesman Graham MacEwen said Friday that the first relief well has now reached 12,090 feet below the floor of the rig, 5,000 feet from the sea floor.

                          BP interrupted drilling last week to install a blowout preventer, the safety device that's supposed to seal a well in an emergency, but which failed to do so on the main well.

                          The second relief well, MacEwen said, is 8,650 feet below the floor of the rig. (Which is only 3,650 feet below the sea bed --GG)

                          The relief wells start about a half mile from the original site and try to meet the original at a diagonal.
                          So, if the news of a second, bigger leak, is true, AND IF it may take 7 months instead of 3 months to get the first relief well to the base of the Deep Water Horizon well stem, AND IF they can hit that "pie pan target", AND IF the mud injection can stop the flow of oil so cement can be used to plug the well permanently, then PERHAPS the Gulf leak will be stopped. IF any of those "IF"s fail then the nuke option will be the only one left. IF it fails and radioactivity leaks into the Gulf until the pressure pushing the 50 Million barrels in the formation out of the well stem subsides below sea pressure at that depth, then we could be looking at a contamination which could last for 10 half-lives of the hottest radioisotope created. It could be centuries.

                          All for 50M barrels. The USA currently consumes about 7 Million barrels of oil PER DAY, so that formation would have supplied the USA with only for only ONE WEEK, if we were totally dependent on it.
                          "A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
                          – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Re: "Top Kill" FAILED -- here is what is affected ...

                            I'm no expert on this, and my training on Atomic Demolition Munitions is now 40 years old. And I still to this day am bound by security regulations, but I believe it could be done with a much smaller device than 100 kt. And it would not require actually inserting it into the pipe. The immense pressure at that depth is, of course, something that would have to be dealt with. Residual radiation would not be a major problem with the proper munition.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Re: "Top Kill" FAILED -- here is what is affected ...

                              I was going to say that I think the proper device would likely cause much less environmental damage than this oil is.

                              What's worse - dead fish covered in oil or mutated three-eyed fish with arms?

                              Please Read Me

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